Ho Chi Minh v Viettel prediction · V.League 1

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 15:01

Ho Chi Minh 1–0 Viettel VIETTEL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viettel win~~43%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.806

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viettel win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Viettel 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 27–30–43
1′KICK-OFF Ho Chi Minh v Viettel
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Viettel
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Ho Chi Minh
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Viettel win 35%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Viettel win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
45′HALF-TIME Ho Chi Minh 0–0 Viettel
45′SECOND HALF Ho Chi Minh 0–0 Viettel
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Viettel
50′We said Viettel at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 22–47–31
55′We said Viettel at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 20–51–29
64′We said Viettel at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 17–58–24
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Viettel win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
69′A goal for Ho Chi Minh on 68′. 0–0 · 15–64–21
71′We said Viettel at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
71′⚽ GOAL · 68' Ho Chi Minh 1–0 Viettel
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Viettel win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Ho Chi Minh win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 66%)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ho Chi Minh · On: J. Cummings · Off: Aldair
77′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ho Chi Minh · On: J. Narvaez · Off: Leo Gomes
77′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ho Chi Minh · On: W. Hoang · Off: Nguyen Tien Linh
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Ho Chi Minh
78′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Viettel · On: Tran Danh Trung · Off: Nguyen Duc Hoang Minh
80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Viettel · On: Hernades · Off: V. t. Nguyen Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Viettel · On: Hernades · Off: Trieu Viet Hung
81′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Viettel · On: N. Huu Thang · Off: Khuat Van Khang
81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Ho Chi Minh
82′Ho Chi Minh are down to ten from 81′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 90–9–1
FTFULL TIME Ho Chi Minh 1–0 Viettel
FTHo Chi Minh 1–0 Viettel · Viettel win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viettel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ho Chi Minh 27%, draw 30%, Viettel 43%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Ho Chi Minh v ViettelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Ho Chi Minh win27%

Draw30%

Viettel win43%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueGo Dau Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ho Chi Minh

Viettel

1Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · V.League 2

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Ho Chi Minh	3	+1	4
11	Viettel	3	−1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viettel winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

43% The market34%

Us43%

~~Market~~34%

We make Viettel a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ho Chi Minh v Viettel~~0.94 – 1.27

~~Form · V.League 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 3~~9 v 11

~~The market · Viettel win~~34% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Viettel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ho Chi Minh win	27%	36%	−9
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Viettel win	43%	34%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	38%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	44%	51%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	25%	−7
Ho Chi Minh or draw	57%	66%	−9
Ho Chi Minh clean sheet	28%	–	–
Viettel clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.8 13.3 8.8 3.7 1 9.8 13.6 8.2 3.5 2 4.9 6.1 3.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ho Chi Minh down, Viettel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 950 V.League 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.30 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ho Chi Minh at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Viettel away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Ho Chi Minh, 1.27 for Viettel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.30

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HOC 1–1 VIE · VIE 3–0 HOC · VIE 2–0 HOC · HOC 0–0 VIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 4 Sept

HO CHI MINH

WLD3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

VIETTEL

WLL2–0 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Phu Dong	4	+5	10
2	Công An Nhân Dân	4	+5	9
3	Song Lam Nghe An	4	+4	8
4	Nam Dinh	4	+3	7
5	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	4	+1	7
6	Hai Phong	4	+2	6
7	Thanh Hóa	4	−1	6
8	Ha Noi	4	−3	6
9	Ho Chi Minh	3	+1	4
10	Bắc Ninh	4	−1	4
11	Viettel	3	−1	3
12	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	4	−4	3
13	Da Nang	4	−5	3
14	Bình Phước	4	−6	1