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Hai Phong v Thanh Hóa

Hai Phong

1–2Full time

Thanh Hóa

V.League 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Hai Phong 1–2 Thanh Hóa HAI PHONG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hai Phong win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.851

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.836

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hai Phong win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hai Phong 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Hai Phong v Thanh Hóa
14′⚽ GOAL · 16' Hai Phong 0–0 Thanh Hóa
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Hai Phong 0–1 Thanh Hóa
19′⚽ GOAL · 20' Hai Phong 0–1 Thanh Hóa
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Hai Phong 1–1 Thanh Hóa · Matheus Martins
21′A goal for Hai Phong on 20′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 45–30–25
21′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Thanh Hóa
45′HALF-TIME Hai Phong 1–1 Thanh Hóa
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hai Phong win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′SECOND HALF Hai Phong 1–1 Thanh Hóa
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Hai Phong 1–1 Thanh Hóa
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Hai Phong 1–2 Thanh Hóa · M. Makaric
64′57′ and it is 1–2: D. Thongkhamsavath on the scoresheet for Thanh Hóa. 1–2 · 6–23–71
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Hai Phong win: 48% at kick-off, 6% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Thanh Hóa win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Hai Phong win 6%)
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Thanh Hóa
85′We said Hai Phong at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 1–2 · 0–8–92
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Hai Phong
FTFULL TIME Hai Phong 1–2 Thanh Hóa
FTHai Phong 1–2 Thanh Hóa · Hai Phong win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Hai Phong win48%

Draw26%

Thanh Hóa win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Hai Phong

Formation not confirmed

30 Nguyen Van Toan

5 Dang Tuan Phong

9 M. Makaric

11 Ho Minh Di

15 N. T. Nguyen

19 Le Manh Dung

39 Nguyen Vu Tin

77 Nguyen Huu Son

95 J. Tagueu

97 E. Orozco

99 J. Mpande

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · D. K. Hoang Trong

17 · T. H. Nguyen

20 · M. H. Tran Dinh

21 · Tran Gia Hung

27 · Hoang Van Tuyen

28 · T. V. Huynh

35 · Vu Quoc Anh

91 · Nguyen Van Anh

98 · T. T. Hoang

Thanh Hóa

Formation not confirmed

23 T. Q. Vu

9 S. Guindo

14 Truong Thanh Nam

15 Trinh Van Loi

16 Nguyen Dinh Huyen

17 Nguyen Van Tung

22 D. Thongkhamsavath

35 D. Lovric

58 M. Truong Duc

77 O. Abdurakhmanov

98 Matheus Martins

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · Nguyen Huu Dung

7 · B. Nguyen

8 · Ngo Duc Hoang

10 · Le Van Thang

29 · Doan Ngoc Ha

– · H. Tung Han

39 · Doan Tuan Canh

75 · V. H. Le

89 · Nguyen Trong Phu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hai Phong

Formation not confirmed

30 Nguyen Van Toan

5 Dang Tuan Phong

9 M. Makaric

11 Ho Minh Di

15 N. T. Nguyen

19 Le Manh Dung

39 Nguyen Vu Tin

77 Nguyen Huu Son

95 J. Tagueu

97 E. Orozco

99 J. Mpande

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · D. K. Hoang Trong

17 · T. H. Nguyen

20 · M. H. Tran Dinh

21 · Tran Gia Hung

27 · Hoang Van Tuyen

28 · T. V. Huynh

35 · Vu Quoc Anh

91 · Nguyen Van Anh

98 · T. T. Hoang

Thanh Hóa

Formation not confirmed

23 T. Q. Vu

9 S. Guindo

14 Truong Thanh Nam

15 Trinh Van Loi

16 Nguyen Dinh Huyen

17 Nguyen Van Tung

22 D. Thongkhamsavath

35 D. Lovric

58 M. Truong Duc

77 O. Abdurakhmanov

98 Matheus Martins

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · Nguyen Huu Dung

7 · B. Nguyen

8 · Ngo Duc Hoang

10 · Le Van Thang

29 · Doan Ngoc Ha

– · H. Tung Han

39 · Doan Tuan Canh

75 · V. H. Le

89 · Nguyen Trong Phu

Our number · hai phong winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Hai Phong a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hai phong win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hai Phong win	48%	46%	+2
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Thanh Hóa win	26%	26%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	53%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−5
Hai Phong or draw	74%	74%	0
Hai Phong clean sheet	34%	–	–
Thanh Hóa clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.5 7.1 4.1 1 10.5 12.2 6.4 2.4 2 8.6 9.3 5.1 3 4.6 4.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hai Phong down, Thanh Hóa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 939 V.League 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.09 goals a meeting; 7 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hai Phong at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Thanh Hóa away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Hai Phong, 1.09 for Thanh Hóa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.09

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~HAI 3–3 THA · THA 2–2 HAI · HAI 2–1 THA · THA 3–1 HAI

Form · last six in V.League 1

HAI PHONG

WLLDLW4–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 3–1

THANH HÓA

LDLLWL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 1–2

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Công An Nhân Dân	3	+6	9
2	Phu Dong	2	+4	6
3	Song Lam Nghe An	2	+4	6
4	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	3	+1	6
5	Da Nang	2	+2	3
6	Nam Dinh	2	+1	3
7	Ho Chi Minh	2	+1	3
8	Thanh Hóa	2	0	3
9	Bắc Ninh	2	0	3
10	Hai Phong	2	−1	3
11	Viettel	3	−1	3
12	Ha Noi	2	−5	0
13	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	2	−6	0
14	Bình Phước	3	−6	0