Ha Noi v Bắc Ninh prediction · V.League 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Ha Noi 1–0 Bắc Ninh HA NOI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ha Noi win~~55%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.301

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.203

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ha Noi win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Ha Noi v Bắc Ninh
2′Much as we predicted: Ha Noi was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
29′PENALTY MISSED · 30' Bắc Ninh
45′SECOND HALF Ha Noi 0–0 Bắc Ninh
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Ha Noi
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Ha Noi 1–0 Bắc Ninh
77′⚽ GOAL · 78' Ha Noi 1–0 Bắc Ninh
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Bắc Ninh
FTFULL TIME Ha Noi 1–0 Bắc Ninh
FTHa Noi 1–0 Bắc Ninh · Ha Noi win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ha Noi win55%

Draw24%

Bắc Ninh win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:15

VenueHang Day Stadium

Line-ups

Ha Noi

Bắc Ninh

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ha Noi

Bắc Ninh

29Days since last match30

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027/28

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bắc Ninh	2	0	3
13	Ha Noi	2	−5	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ha Noi

Formation not confirmed

1 V. C. Quan

16 Nguyen Thanh Chung

33 A. T. Nguyen

22 Nguyen Cong Nhat

35 Adriel

88 Do Hung Dung

36 Y. Sade

6 K. Felida

10 Nguyen Van Quyet

90 A. Jung

9 A. Faurand-Tournaire

Coach · –

Substitutes

17 · Ho Thanh Minh

23 · Nguyen Van Tung

14 · Nguyen Hai Long

18 · N. L. Bui

20 · H. P. Dau

7 · X. M. Pham

21 · D. H. Vu

66 · D. H. Pham

29 · Nguyen Duc Anh

Bắc Ninh

Formation not confirmed

1 Nguyen Van Cong

5 Vu Hong Quan

8 Rosa Nascimento

9 Brenner

10 D. Fisher

16 Nguyen Van Dat

18 Mai Xuan Quyet

21 Phan The Hung

29 Ngan Van Dai

43 K. T. Nguyen

99 Rafael Santos

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · Dinh Van Truong

14 · Nguyen Van Viet

68 · Tran Van Trung

3 · Nguyen Ngoc Thang

– · Minh Kai R

– · P. Lamothe

– · Nguyen Hai Huy

37 · Le Van Hung

– · V. T. Tran

19 · R. Gaylor

Our number · ha noi winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

55% The market63%

Us55%

~~Market~~63%

We make Ha Noi a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ha noi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ha Noi win	55%	63%	−8
Draw	24%	21%	+3
Bắc Ninh win	21%	16%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Ha Noi or draw	79%	84%	−5
Ha Noi clean sheet	36%	–	–
Bắc Ninh clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.3 5.5 3.1 1 9.9 11.1 5.6 2 9.4 9.6 5.0 3 5.7 5.9 3.1 4 2.7 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ha Noi down, Bắc Ninh across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 942 V.League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ha Noi at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bắc Ninh away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Ha Noi, 1.05 for Bắc Ninh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in V.League 1

HA NOI

WWLDLL4–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–4

BẮC NINH

DLW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Công An Nhân Dân	3	+6	9
2	Phu Dong	3	+4	7
3	Song Lam Nghe An	2	+4	6
4	Thanh Hóa	3	+1	6
5	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	3	+1	6
6	Nam Dinh	3	+1	4
7	Ho Chi Minh	2	+1	3
8	Bắc Ninh	2	0	3
9	Da Nang	3	−1	3
10	Viettel	3	−1	3
11	Hai Phong	3	−2	3
12	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	3	−3	3
13	Ha Noi	2	−5	0
14	Bình Phước	3	−6	0