Da Nang v Hai Phong prediction · V.League 1

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Da Nang 1–5 Hai Phong DA NANG WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Da Nang win~~37%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.621

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.819

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Da Nang win at 37%.
2′Much as we predicted: Da Nang was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
2′KICK-OFF Da Nang v Hai Phong
18′We published Da Nang at 37%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–14
18′Da Nang score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–14
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Da Nang 1–0 Hai Phong
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Da Nang win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Da Nang 1–1 Hai Phong
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Da Nang win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
25′Hai Phong find the net on 24′. 1–1. 1–1 · 34–32–33
30′Hai Phong find the net on 30′. 1–1 · 34–34–33
30′We said Da Nang at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–22–66
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 12–22–66
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Da Nang 1–2 Hai Phong
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Da Nang win: 37% at kick-off, 12% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Hai Phong win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Da Nang win 12%)
41′Hai Phong score on 41′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–90
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Da Nang 1–3 Hai Phong
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Da Nang win: 37% at kick-off, 2% now
42′We said Da Nang at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
42′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–7–91
45′HALF-TIME Da Nang 1–3 Hai Phong
46′SECOND HALF Da Nang 1–3 Hai Phong
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Da Nang
76′Da Nang find the net on 75′. 1–3 · 0–1–98
78′Hai Phong find the net on 78′. 1–3 · 0–1–99
79′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Da Nang 1–4 Hai Phong
90′Full time, 1–5. We called Da Nang at 37% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–5 · 0–0–100
93′6 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
93′A goal for Hai Phong on 90′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Da Nang 1–5 Hai Phong
FTFULL TIME Da Nang 1–5 Hai Phong
FTDa Nang 1–5 Hai Phong · Da Nang win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Da Nang just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Da Nang 37%, draw 27%, Hai Phong 36%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Da Nang v Hai PhongBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Da Nang win37%

Draw27%

Hai Phong win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Line-ups

Da Nang

Hai Phong

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Da Nang

Hai Phong

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · V.League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Da Nang	3	−1	3
11	Hai Phong	3	−2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Da Nang

Formation not confirmed

91 Bui Tien Dung II

5 Y. Calleros

3 M. Fracchia

10 K. Luong

27 B. Ly

79 S. H. Mai

11 Phan Van Long

8 Que Ngoc Hai

17 V. H. Vo Huu

37 V. S. Vu

9 I. Saponjic

Coach · Tuan Le Duc

Substitutes

32 · Q. D. Le V.

22 · Le Vu Quoc Nhat

23 · H. P. Nguyen

36 · Nguyen Minh Quang

18 · Pham Dinh Duy

2 · N. H. Tran

26 · Vo Huy Toan

28 · Vo Nguyen Hoang

33 · Do Sy Huy

Hai Phong

Formation not confirmed

11 Ho Minh Di

19 Le Manh Dung

9 M. Makaric

99 J. Mpande

15 N. T. Nguyen

30 Nguyen Van Toan

39 Nguyen Vu Tin

77 Nguyen Huu Son

97 E. Orozco

95 J. Tagueu

35 Vu Quoc Anh

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · Hoang Van Tuyen

7 · D. K. Hoang Trong

28 · T. V. Huynh

31 · Huu Thai Nguyen

14 · A. T. Nguyen

17 · T. H. Nguyen

91 · Nguyen Van Anh

20 · M. H. Tran Dinh

10 · C. Vasconcelos

Our number · da nang winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market45%

Us37%

~~Market~~45%

We make Da Nang a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Da Nang v Hai Phong~~1.33 – 1.31

~~Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~8 v 11

~~The market · Da Nang win~~45% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Da Nang win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Da Nang win	37%	45%	−8
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Hai Phong win	36%	27%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Da Nang or draw	64%	73%	−9
Da Nang clean sheet	27%	–	–
Hai Phong clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.8 8.9 6.1 2.7 1 9.0 12.8 8.0 3.5 2 6.3 8.1 5.3 2.3 3 2.8 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Da Nang down, Hai Phong across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 944 V.League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Da Nang at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hai Phong away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Da Nang, 1.31 for Hai Phong. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DAN 2–0 HAI · HAI 3–1 DAN · HAI 1–0 DAN · DAN 0–0 HAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

DA NANG

LWL2–3 · 3–0 · 0–3

HAI PHONG

LWL1–4 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Công An Nhân Dân	3	+6	9
2	Phu Dong	3	+4	7
3	Song Lam Nghe An	3	+4	7
4	Thanh Hóa	3	+1	6
5	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	3	+1	6
6	Nam Dinh	3	+1	4
7	Ho Chi Minh	3	+1	4
8	Da Nang	3	−1	3
9	Viettel	3	−1	3
10	Bắc Ninh	3	−1	3
11	Hai Phong	3	−2	3
12	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	3	−3	3
13	Ha Noi	3	−4	3
14	Bình Phước	3	−6	0