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Công An Nhân Dân v Thanh Hóa

Công An Nhân Dân

1–1Full time

Thanh Hóa

V.League 1 · THU 22 OCT · Hang Day Stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 16:01

Công An Nhân Dân 1–1 Thanh Hóa CÔNG AN NHÂN DÂN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Công An Nhân Dân win~~66%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.098

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.266

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Công An Nhân Dân win at 66%.
1′Much as we predicted: Công An Nhân Dân was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–20–14
1′KICK-OFF Công An Nhân Dân v Thanh Hóa
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Công An Nhân Dân win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
39′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–31–15
42′We published Công An Nhân Dân at 66%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Công An Nhân Dân 1–0 Thanh Hóa
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Công An Nhân Dân win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
43′Công An Nhân Dân score on 43′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
45′SECOND HALF Công An Nhân Dân 1–0 Thanh Hóa
46′HALF-TIME Công An Nhân Dân 1–0 Thanh Hóa
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Công An Nhân Dân win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
54′We published Công An Nhân Dân at 66%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
54′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Công An Nhân Dân 2–0 Thanh Hóa
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Công An Nhân Dân win: 66% at kick-off, 98% now
55′Công An Nhân Dân find the net on 54′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' Công An Nhân Dân
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Công An Nhân Dân win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Công An Nhân Dân 1–1 Thanh Hóa
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Công An Nhân Dân win: 66% at kick-off, 42% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Công An Nhân Dân win 86%)
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Công An Nhân Dân win: 66% at kick-off, 36% now
69′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–55–12
73′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–60–10
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Công An Nhân Dân win: 66% at kick-off, 25% now
77′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–67–9
81′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–75–7
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Công An Nhân Dân win: 66% at kick-off, 16% now
84′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–82–5
88′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Công An Nhân Dân win: 66% at kick-off, 6% now
94′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME Công An Nhân Dân 1–1 Thanh Hóa
FTCông An Nhân Dân 1–1 Thanh Hóa · Công An Nhân Dân win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Công An Nhân Dân are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Công An Nhân Dân 66%, draw 20%, Thanh Hóa 14%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Công An Nhân Dân v Thanh HóaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Công An Nhân Dân win66%

Draw20%

Thanh Hóa win14%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:15

RoundMatchday 5

VenueHang Day Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Công An Nhân Dân

Thanh Hóa

4Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · V.League 1

Last match: 17 Oct · V.League 1

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Công An Nhân Dân	4	+5	9
8	Thanh Hóa	4	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · công an nhân dân winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

66% The market75%

Us66%

~~Market~~75%

We make Công An Nhân Dân a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Công An Nhân Dân v Thanh Hóa~~2.16 – 0.87

~~Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~2 v 8

~~The market · Công An Nhân Dân win~~75% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Công An Nhân Dân win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 66% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Công An Nhân Dân win	66%	75%	−9
Draw	20%	16%	+4
Thanh Hóa win	14%	9%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	64%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	49%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
Công An Nhân Dân or draw	86%	91%	−5
Công An Nhân Dân clean sheet	42%	–	–
Thanh Hóa clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 3.9 1 10.1 9.4 4.0 2 11.1 9.6 4.2 3 8.0 6.9 3.0 4 4.4 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Công An Nhân Dân down, Thanh Hóa across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 951 V.League 1 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.22 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Công An Nhân Dân at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Thanh Hóa away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Công An Nhân Dân, 0.87 for Thanh Hóa. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.22

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~CON 2–0 THA · THA 1–3 CON · THA 1–4 CON · CON 0–1 THA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

CÔNG AN NHÂN DÂN

WWWL2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

THANH HÓA

WLWL3–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Phu Dong	4	+5	10
2	Công An Nhân Dân	4	+5	9
3	Song Lam Nghe An	4	+4	8
4	Nam Dinh	4	+3	7
5	Ho Chi Minh	4	+2	7
6	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	4	+1	7
7	Hai Phong	4	+2	6
8	Thanh Hóa	4	−1	6
9	Ha Noi	4	−3	6
10	Bắc Ninh	4	−1	4
11	Viettel	4	−2	3
12	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	4	−4	3
13	Da Nang	4	−5	3
14	Bình Phước	4	−6	1