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Công An Nhân Dân v Ha Noi

Công An Nhân Dân
1–2Full time
Ha Noi

V.League 1 · SUN 18 OCT · Hang Day Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Công An Nhân Dân 1–2 Ha Noi CÔNG AN NHÂN DÂN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Công An Nhân Dân win55%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.948
The market’s Brier score1.023

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Công An Nhân Dân win at 55%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Công An Nhân Dân was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–23–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Công An Nhân Dân v Ha Noi
  4. 18′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–24–48
  5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Công An Nhân Dân 0–1 Ha Noi
  6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Công An Nhân Dân win: 55% at kick-off, 27% now
  7. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Ha Noi win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Công An Nhân Dân win 27%)
  8. 19′Ha Noi find the net on 19′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–24–49
  9. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Công An Nhân Dân win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  10. 27′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
  11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 23–25–51
  12. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Ha Noi
  13. 40′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–54
  14. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Ha Noi
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Công An Nhân Dân 0–1 Ha Noi
  16. 46′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–35–22
  17. 46′A goal for Công An Nhân Dân on 46′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 43–35–22
  18. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Công An Nhân Dân 1–1 Ha Noi
  19. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Công An Nhân Dân win: 55% at kick-off, 43% now
  20. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Công An Nhân Dân win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Ha Noi win 22%)
  21. 47′HALF-TIME Công An Nhân Dân 0–1 Ha Noi
  22. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Công An Nhân Dân 1–2 Ha Noi
  23. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Công An Nhân Dân win: 55% at kick-off, 16% now
  24. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Ha Noi win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Công An Nhân Dân win 16%)
  25. 49′Ha Noi score on 49′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 16–27–58
  26. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Công An Nhân Dân win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  27. 51′48′: Nguyen Van Tung on the scoresheet for Ha Noi, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 15–27–59
  28. 52′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–27–59
  29. 63′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
  30. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Ha Noi
  31. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Công An Nhân Dân win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
  32. 74′We said Công An Nhân Dân at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
  33. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Ha Noi
  34. 95′Full time, 1–2. We called Công An Nhân Dân at 55% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  35. FTFULL TIME Công An Nhân Dân 1–2 Ha Noi
  36. FTCông An Nhân Dân 1–2 Ha Noi · Công An Nhân Dân win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Công An Nhân Dân are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Công An Nhân Dân 55%, draw 22%, Ha Noi 23%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Công An Nhân Dân v Ha NoiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Công An Nhân Dân win55%
Draw22%
Ha Noi win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:15

RoundMatchday 4

VenueHang Day Stadium

Line-ups

Công An Nhân Dân

Ha Noi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Công An Nhân Dân

Ha Noi

5Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 11 Oct · V.League 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2027

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Công An Nhân Dân3+69
12Ha Noi3−43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Công An Nhân Dân

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Nguyen

7 J. Pendant

38 L. Adou

12 Hoang Van Toan

11 Le Pham Thanh Long

88 Le Van Do

6 S. Mauk

19 Nguyen Quang Hai

55 F. Putros

72 Alan Grafite

10 Leo Artur

Coach · Alexandre Polking

Substitutes

26 · Ha Van Phuong

18 · Dinh Thanh Binh

15 · Bui Xuan Thinh

4 · N. T. Phan

23 · Vu Thanh Vinh

9 · Nguyen Dinh Bac

Ha Noi

Formation not confirmed

1 V. C. Quan

35 Adriel

22 Nguyen Cong Nhat

16 Nguyen Thanh Chung

7 X. M. Pham

88 Do Hung Dung

36 Y. Sade

9 A. Faurand-Tournaire

10 Nguyen Van Quyet

23 Nguyen Van Tung

6 K. Felida

Coach · –

Substitutes

29 · Nguyen Duc Anh

19 · X. T. Le

17 · Ho Thanh Minh

14 · Nguyen Hai Long

21 · D. H. Vu

3 · Le Van Ha

66 · D. H. Pham

33 · A. T. Nguyen

20 · H. P. Dau

Our number · công an nhân dân winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
55% The market58%
Us55%
Market58%

We make Công An Nhân Dân a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Công An Nhân Dân v Ha Noi2.00 – 1.22
Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 SeptW3 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L2
Table places · points 9 v 31 v 12
The market · Công An Nhân Dân win58% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0718 OCT 12:51
Our probability · Công An Nhân Dân win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Công An Nhân Dân win55%58%−3
Draw22%22%0
Ha Noi win23%20%+3
Over 2.5 goals62%63%−1
Both teams to score61%61%0
Over 1.5 goals83%82%+1
Over 3.5 goals40%42%−2
Công An Nhân Dân or draw77%80%−3
Công An Nhân Dân clean sheet30%––
Ha Noi clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%
0123450 4.6 4.6 3.0 1 7.7 10.1 5.9 2.4 2 8.0 9.6 5.8 2.4 3 5.3 6.4 3.9 4 2.7 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Công An Nhân Dân down, Ha Noi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.55 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsHAN 2–1 CON · CON 4–2 HAN · CON 0–2 HAN · HAN 1–1 CON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

CÔNG AN NHÂN DÂN

WWW2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

HA NOI

LLW1–3 · 1–4 · 1–0

The table

2027
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Công An Nhân Dân3+69
2Song Lam Nghe An4+48
3Phu Dong3+47
4Nam Dinh4+37
5Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh4+17
6Hai Phong4+26
7Thanh Hóa4−16
8Ho Chi Minh3+14
9Viettel3−13
10Bắc Ninh3−13
11Hoang Anh Gia Lai3−33
12Ha Noi3−43
13Da Nang4−53
14Bình Phước3−60

The competition's standings before kick-off.