Bình Phước v Nam Dinh prediction · V.League 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Bình Phước 0–4 Nam Dinh NAM DINH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nam Dinh win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.446

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nam Dinh win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nam Dinh was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 27–27–45
1′KICK-OFF Bình Phước v Nam Dinh
10′Nam Dinh find the net on 10′. 0–0 · 27–29–44
10′We published Nam Dinh at 45%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 10–17–73
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Bình Phước 0–1 Nam Dinh
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Nam Dinh win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
12′GOAL DISALLOWED · 12' Nam Dinh
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Nam Dinh win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Bình Phước
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Nam Dinh win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Bình Phước 0–0 Nam Dinh
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Nam Dinh win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
46′SECOND HALF Bình Phước 0–0 Nam Dinh
47′Nam Dinh find the net on 47′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–77
47′We published Nam Dinh at 45%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 5–18–77
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Bình Phước 0–1 Nam Dinh
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Nam Dinh win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Nam Dinh win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 42%)
48′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–77
56′A goal for Nam Dinh on 56′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
56′We published Nam Dinh at 45%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Bình Phước 0–2 Nam Dinh
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Nam Dinh win: 45% at kick-off, 96% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Nam Dinh
61′Nam Dinh score on 60′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
61′We published Nam Dinh at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Bình Phước 0–3 Nam Dinh
75′Nam Dinh find the net on 74′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
75′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Bình Phước 0–4 Nam Dinh
80′GOAL DISALLOWED · 80' Nam Dinh
93′Nam Dinh find the net on 90′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Bình Phước 0–4 Nam Dinh
FTFULL TIME Bình Phước 0–4 Nam Dinh
FTBình Phước 0–4 Nam Dinh · Nam Dinh win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nam Dinh are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bình Phước 27%, draw 27%, Nam Dinh 45%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Bình Phước v Nam DinhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bình Phước win27%

Draw27%

Nam Dinh win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueBinh Phuoc Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bình Phước

Nam Dinh

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · V.League 1

Last match: 17 Oct · V.League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Nam Dinh	4	+3	7
14	Bình Phước	4	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nam dinh winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Nam Dinh a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bình Phước v Nam Dinh~~1.07 – 1.46

~~Form · V.League 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 7~~14 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nam Dinh win

Published at 46%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bình Phước win	27%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Nam Dinh win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Bình Phước or draw	55%	–	–
Bình Phước clean sheet	24%	–	–
Nam Dinh clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.8 11.1 8.5 4.1 1 8.0 12.8 8.8 4.3 2 4.6 6.5 4.7 2.3 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bình Phước down, Nam Dinh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 954 V.League 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bình Phước at home: 0.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 2). Nam Dinh away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Bình Phước, 1.46 for Nam Dinh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BIN 0–4 NAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 4 Sept

BÌNH PHƯỚC

LLLD0–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0

NAM DINH

WLDW4–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Song Lam Nghe An	5	+6	11
2	Phu Dong	4	+5	10
3	Công An Nhân Dân	5	+5	10
4	Nam Dinh	4	+3	7
5	Ho Chi Minh	4	+2	7
6	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	4	+1	7
7	Thanh Hóa	5	−1	7
8	Hai Phong	4	+2	6
9	Ha Noi	4	−3	6
10	Bắc Ninh	5	−1	5
11	Viettel	5	−2	4
12	Da Nang	4	−5	3
13	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	5	−6	3
14	Bình Phước	4	−6	1