Bắc Ninh v Bình Phước prediction · V.League 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Bắc Ninh 0–0 Bình Phước BẮC NINH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bắc Ninh win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bắc Ninh win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bắc Ninh was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
1′KICK-OFF Bắc Ninh v Bình Phước
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Bắc Ninh
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bắc Ninh win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Bắc Ninh win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Bắc Ninh 0–0 Bình Phước
46′SECOND HALF Bắc Ninh 0–0 Bình Phước
47′We said Bắc Ninh at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–44–21
50′We said Bắc Ninh at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–20
60′We said Bắc Ninh at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Bắc Ninh win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Bắc Ninh
68′We said Bắc Ninh at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
74′We said Bắc Ninh at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Bắc Ninh win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
79′We said Bắc Ninh at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
84′We said Bắc Ninh at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–6
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Bắc Ninh
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Bắc Ninh win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Bình Phước
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Bình Phước
90′We said Bắc Ninh at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Bình Phước
FTFULL TIME Bắc Ninh 0–0 Bình Phước
FTBắc Ninh 0–0 Bình Phước · Bắc Ninh win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bắc Ninh are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bắc Ninh 47%, draw 28%, Bình Phước 25%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Bắc Ninh v Bình PhướcBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bắc Ninh win47%

Draw28%

Bình Phước win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueViet Yen Stadium

Line-ups

Bắc Ninh

Bình Phước

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bắc Ninh

Bình Phước

7Days since last match12

Last match: 11 Oct · V.League 1

Last match: 6 Oct · Cup (Vietnam)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Bắc Ninh	3	−1	3
14	Bình Phước	3	−6	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bắc Ninh

Formation not confirmed

1 Nguyen Van Cong

43 K. T. Nguyen

86 T. L. Vu

99 Rafael Santos

21 Phan The Hung

5 Vu Hong Quan

18 Mai Xuan Quyet

8 Rosa Nascimento

9 Brenner

10 D. Fisher

29 Ngan Van Dai

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · Dinh Van Truong

37 · Le Van Hung

14 · Nguyen Hai Huy

16 · Nguyen Van Dat

68 · Tran Van Trung

3 · Nguyen Ngoc Thang

15 · Nguyen Van Viet

28 · V. T. Tran

19 · R. Gaylor

Bình Phước

Formation not confirmed

17 Pham Van Phong

68 Bui Tien Dung

22 F. Jovic

15 Nguyen Huu Tuan

18 Nguyen Van Duc

6 Luong Xuan Truong

20 Luu Tu Nhan

7 M. Vulic

9 A. Ivan

11 A. Majdevac

10 Nguyen Cong Phuong

Coach · –

Substitutes

66 · Ho Tuan Tai

2 · Duong Van Khoa

77 · Sam Ngoc Duc

25 · Pham Huu Nghia

21 · Chu Van Kien

27 · Doan Hai Quan

23 · Tran Trong Hieu

24 · Phan Van Hieu

14 · Nguyen Quoc Loc

Our number · bắc ninh winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Bắc Ninh a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bắc Ninh v Bình Phước~~1.40 – 0.93

~~Form · V.League 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W0 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~10 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bắc Ninh win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Bình Phước win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Bắc Ninh or draw	75%	–	–
Bắc Ninh clean sheet	40%	–	–
Bình Phước clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 10.6 8.6 4.3 1 13.1 12.9 5.8 2 9.4 8.6 4.0 3 4.4 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bắc Ninh down, Bình Phước across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 947 V.League 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: V.League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bắc Ninh at home: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Bình Phước away: 0.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Bắc Ninh, 0.93 for Bình Phước. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAC 2–1 BIN · BIN 0–0 BAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · V.League 1 this season · since 4 Sept

BẮC NINH

LWL0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

BÌNH PHƯỚC

LLL0–2 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Công An Nhân Dân	3	+6	9
2	Song Lam Nghe An	4	+4	8
3	Phu Dong	3	+4	7
4	Nam Dinh	4	+3	7
5	Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh	4	+1	7
6	Hai Phong	4	+2	6
7	Thanh Hóa	4	−1	6
8	Ho Chi Minh	3	+1	4
9	Viettel	3	−1	3
10	Bắc Ninh	3	−1	3
11	Hoang Anh Gia Lai	3	−3	3
12	Ha Noi	3	−4	3
13	Da Nang	4	−5	3
14	Bình Phước	3	−6	0