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Yaracuyanos FC v Fundación Lara Deportiva

Yaracuyanos FC

3–2Full time

Fundación Lara Deportiva

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Florentino Oropeza

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:01

Yaracuyanos FC 3–2 Fundación Lara Deportiva YARACUYANOS FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yaracuyanos FC win~~48%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.544

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yaracuyanos FC win at 48%.
1′A goal for Yaracuyanos FC on 1′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
1′KICK-OFF Yaracuyanos FC v Fundación Lara Deportiva
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Yaracuyanos FC win: 48% at kick-off, 92% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Yaracuyanos FC win: 48% at kick-off, 92% now
38′A goal for Yaracuyanos FC on 1′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Yaracuyanos FC win: 48% at kick-off, 92% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Yaracuyanos FC 3–0 Fundación Lara Deportiva
45′41′ and it is 3–0: Yaracuyanos FC have scored. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 1' Yaracuyanos FC 3–0 Fundación Lara Deportiva
45′⚽ GOAL · 41' Yaracuyanos FC 3–0 Fundación Lara Deportiva
45′HALF-TIME Yaracuyanos FC 3–0 Fundación Lara Deportiva
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Yaracuyanos FC win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Yaracuyanos FC win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
46′SECOND HALF Yaracuyanos FC 3–0 Fundación Lara Deportiva
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Yaracuyanos FC 3–1 Fundación Lara Deportiva
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Yaracuyanos FC win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Yaracuyanos FC win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Yaracuyanos FC 3–2 Fundación Lara Deportiva
85′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Fundación Lara Deportiva
FTYaracuyanos FC 3–2 Fundación Lara Deportiva · Yaracuyanos FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Yaracuyanos FC win48%

Draw29%

Fundación Lara Deportiva win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 08:30

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

Venue · Estadio Florentino Oropeza

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yaracuyanos fc winPublished 10 Oct 22:32

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Yaracuyanos FC a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · yaracuyanos fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yaracuyanos FC win	48%	40%	+8
Draw	29%	28%	0
Fundación Lara Deportiva win	23%	32%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	0
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Yaracuyanos FC or draw	77%	68%	+9
Yaracuyanos FC clean sheet	39%	–	–
Fundación Lara Deportiva clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.4 7.2 4.0 1 11.8 13.3 5.8 2 9.6 8.9 4.2 3 4.8 4.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yaracuyanos FC down, Fundación Lara Deportiva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,320 Segunda División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yaracuyanos FC at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fundación Lara Deportiva away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Yaracuyanos FC, 0.95 for Fundación Lara Deportiva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 11

~~Both scored~~4 of 11

~~Last meetings~~FUN 0–0 YAR · YAR 1–0 FUN · FUN 2–1 YAR · FUN 1–0 YAR

Form · last six in Segunda División

YARACUYANOS FC

LLLWWW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 4–1

FUNDACIÓN LARA DEPORTIVA

WDWWWL5–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	29	+29	63
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	29	+20	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	29	+13	46
4	Urena SC	29	+7	46
5	Monagas II	23	+11	42
6	Zamora FC B	29	+2	40
7	Atletico el Vigia FC	30	−10	40
8	Petare FC	23	+8	38
9	Bolívar	24	−1	37
10	Aragua FC	23	+6	36
11	Puerto Cabello II	30	−6	34
12	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	24	+1	32
13	Club Atletico Barinas	30	−11	32
14	Mineros de Guyana	24	−7	21
15	Marítimo	14	+3	20
16	Atletico Avila FC	23	−21	13
17	Real Frontera	29	−44	12