Urena SC v Yaracuyanos FC prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:00

Urena SC 1–5 Yaracuyanos FC YARACUYANOS FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yaracuyanos FC win~~37%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.593

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.720

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yaracuyanos FC win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Yaracuyanos FC was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 33–30–37
1′KICK-OFF Urena SC v Yaracuyanos FC
30′Yaracuyanos FC score on 30′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–20–70
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Urena SC 0–1 Yaracuyanos FC
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Yaracuyanos FC win: 37% at kick-off, 70% now
31′We published Yaracuyanos FC at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–70
45′HALF-TIME Urena SC 0–1 Yaracuyanos FC
46′SECOND HALF Urena SC 0–1 Yaracuyanos FC
54′We published Yaracuyanos FC at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
58′Yaracuyanos FC find the net on 58′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
58′We published Yaracuyanos FC at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Urena SC 0–2 Yaracuyanos FC
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Yaracuyanos FC win: 37% at kick-off, 95% now
64′A goal for Urena SC on 64′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–18–79
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Yaracuyanos FC win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Urena SC 1–2 Yaracuyanos FC
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Yaracuyanos FC win: 37% at kick-off, 79% now
65′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–17–79
66′We published Yaracuyanos FC at 37%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
68′Yaracuyanos FC score on 67′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–97
68′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–97
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Urena SC 1–3 Yaracuyanos FC
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Yaracuyanos FC win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
76′Yaracuyanos FC find the net on 75′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Urena SC 1–4 Yaracuyanos FC
77′We published Yaracuyanos FC at 37%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
78′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
87′A goal for Yaracuyanos FC on 87′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
87′6 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Urena SC 1–5 Yaracuyanos FC
FTFULL TIME Urena SC 1–5 Yaracuyanos FC
FTUrena SC 1–5 Yaracuyanos FC · Yaracuyanos FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Yaracuyanos FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Urena SC 33%, draw 30%, Yaracuyanos FC 37%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Urena SC v Yaracuyanos FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Urena SC win33%

Draw30%

Yaracuyanos FC win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 35

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Urena SC

Yaracuyanos FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Copa Venezuela

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela

4Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Yaracuyanos FC	30	+14	49
4	Urena SC	30	+7	47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yaracuyanos fc winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

37% The market31%

Us37%

~~Market~~31%

We make Yaracuyanos FC a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Urena SC v Yaracuyanos FC~~1.18 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 47 v 49~~4 v 3

~~The market · Yaracuyanos FC win~~31% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yaracuyanos FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Urena SC win	33%	40%	−7
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Yaracuyanos FC win	37%	31%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
Urena SC or draw	63%	69%	−6
Urena SC clean sheet	29%	–	–
Yaracuyanos FC clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.3 9.8 6.9 3.0 1 9.0 13.9 7.9 3.4 2 6.1 7.4 4.7 3 2.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Urena SC down, Yaracuyanos FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,327 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Urena SC at home: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Yaracuyanos FC away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Urena SC, 1.26 for Yaracuyanos FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~YAR 4–3 URE · URE 1–1 YAR · YAR 0–2 URE · URE 0–1 YAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept

URENA SC

WWLLDD1–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–2

YARACUYANOS FC

LLWWWW0–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 3–2

The table

2026 · Segunda División

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	30	+31	66
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	30	+19	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	30	+14	49
4	Urena SC	30	+7	47
5	Atletico el Vigia FC	31	−10	41
6	Zamora FC B	30	0	40
7	Puerto Cabello II	31	−9	34
8	Club Atletico Barinas	30	−11	32
9	Real Frontera	30	−41	15