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Real Frontera v Puerto Cabello II

Real Frontera

3–0Full time

Puerto Cabello II

Segunda División · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:00

Real Frontera 3–0 Puerto Cabello II PUERTO CABELLO II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Puerto Cabello II win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.640

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Puerto Cabello II win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Puerto Cabello II 37% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 36–26–39
21′4′ and it is 1–0: Real Frontera have scored. 1–0 · 64–22–15
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Real Frontera win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Puerto Cabello II win 15%)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Real Frontera win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Puerto Cabello II win 15%)
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Real Frontera win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Puerto Cabello II win 15%)
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Real Frontera win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Puerto Cabello II win 15%)
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Real Frontera win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Puerto Cabello II win 15%)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Real Frontera win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Puerto Cabello II win 15%)
31′4′ and it is 1–0: Real Frontera have scored. 1–0 · 65–22–12
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Real Frontera win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Puerto Cabello II win 15%)
45′Puerto Cabello II are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 68–22–9
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Puerto Cabello II
45′HALF-TIME Real Frontera 1–0 Puerto Cabello II
46′SECOND HALF Real Frontera 1–0 Puerto Cabello II
53′We said Puerto Cabello II at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 71–22–7
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Puerto Cabello II win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
71′⚽ GOAL · 4' Real Frontera 1–0 Puerto Cabello II
71′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Puerto Cabello II
74′We said Puerto Cabello II at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 82–16–2
77′We said Puerto Cabello II at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′We said Puerto Cabello II at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Real Frontera 2–0 Puerto Cabello II
86′PENALTY MISSED · 85' Puerto Cabello II
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Real Frontera 3–0 Puerto Cabello II
FTFULL TIME Real Frontera 3–0 Puerto Cabello II
FTReal Frontera 3–0 Puerto Cabello II · Puerto Cabello II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 10 Oct 00:00

Real Frontera win35%

Draw28%

Puerto Cabello II win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Frontera

Puerto Cabello II

11Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Puerto Cabello II	30	−6	34
17	Real Frontera	29	−44	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · puerto cabello ii winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Puerto Cabello II a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Frontera win	35%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Puerto Cabello II win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Real Frontera or draw	63%	–	–
Real Frontera clean sheet	25%	–	–
Puerto Cabello II clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.8 7.8 6.3 3.0 1 7.5 12.9 8.2 3.9 2 5.8 7.9 5.5 2.6 3 2.7 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Frontera down, Puerto Cabello II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,322 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 223 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Frontera at home: 0.50 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Puerto Cabello II away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Real Frontera, 1.41 for Puerto Cabello II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PUE 3–0 REA · REA 1–2 PUE · PUE 3–0 REA · PUE 0–1 REA

Form · last six in Segunda División

REAL FRONTERA

LLDLLL1–5 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–4

PUERTO CABELLO II

DLLDLW1–1 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	29	+29	63
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	30	+19	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	30	+14	49
4	Urena SC	29	+7	46
5	Monagas II	24	+12	45
6	Zamora FC B	29	+2	40
7	Atletico el Vigia FC	30	−10	40
8	Petare FC	23	+8	38
9	Bolívar	24	−1	37
10	Aragua FC	23	+6	36
11	Puerto Cabello II	30	−6	34
12	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	24	+1	32
13	Club Atletico Barinas	30	−11	32
14	Mineros de Guyana	24	−7	21
15	Marítimo	14	+3	20
16	Atletico Avila FC	24	−22	13
17	Real Frontera	29	−44	12