Puerto Cabello II v Atletico el Vigia FC prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 09:00

Puerto Cabello II 0–1 Atletico el Vigia FC PUERTO CABELLO II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Puerto Cabello II win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Puerto Cabello II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Puerto Cabello II 42%, draw 28%, Atletico el Vigia FC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Puerto Cabello II v Atletico el Vigia FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Puerto Cabello II win42%

Draw28%

Atletico el Vigia FC win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 35

VenueComplejo Deportivo Socialista

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puerto Cabello II

Atletico el Vigia FC

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División (Venezuela)

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Atletico el Vigia FC	31	−10	41
7	Puerto Cabello II	31	−9	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · puerto cabello ii winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Puerto Cabello II a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puerto Cabello II v Atletico el Vigia FC~~1.47 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 34 v 41~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puerto Cabello II win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Atletico el Vigia FC win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Puerto Cabello II or draw	70%	–	–
Puerto Cabello II clean sheet	30%	–	–
Atletico el Vigia FC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.3 7.1 5.1 2.1 1 8.8 13.1 7.2 3.0 2 7.3 8.7 5.3 2.2 3 3.6 4.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puerto Cabello II down, Atletico el Vigia FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,327 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puerto Cabello II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico el Vigia FC away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Puerto Cabello II, 1.22 for Atletico el Vigia FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PUE 1–1 ATL · ATL 0–0 PUE · PUE 1–0 ATL · ATL 1–4 PUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 16 Sept

PUERTO CABELLO II

LLDLWL2–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–3

ATLETICO EL VIGIA FC

LWDWWD0–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 4–2 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Segunda División

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	30	+31	66
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	30	+19	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	30	+14	49
4	Urena SC	30	+7	47
5	Atletico el Vigia FC	31	−10	41
6	Zamora FC B	30	0	40
7	Puerto Cabello II	31	−9	34
8	Club Atletico Barinas	30	−11	32
9	Real Frontera	30	−41	15