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Petare FC v Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Petare FC

4–2Full time

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Segunda División · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:00

Petare FC 4–2 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz PETARE FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Petare FC win~~50%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.384

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.405

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Petare FC win at 50%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Petare FC 50% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
22′10′ and it is 1–1: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz have scored. 1–1 · 46–32–21
30′10′ and it is 1–1: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz have scored. 1–1 · 44–35–21
45′We said Petare FC at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–42–19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 46% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 38% now
46′SECOND HALF Petare FC 1–1 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Petare FC 2–1 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
51′Petare FC find the net on 49′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 38% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 38% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 38% now
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Petare FC 3–1 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
68′⚽ GOAL · 8' Petare FC 3–1 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
68′⚽ GOAL · 10' Petare FC 3–1 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
68′⚽ GOAL · 49' Petare FC 3–1 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
72′A goal for Petare FC on 68′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
75′A goal for Petare FC on 68′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
76′A goal for Petare FC on 68′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 99% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Petare FC win: 50% at kick-off, 82% now
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Petare FC 3–2 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Petare FC 4–2 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
FTFULL TIME Petare FC 4–2 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
FTPetare FC 4–2 Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · Petare FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 10 Oct 00:00

Petare FC win50%

Draw29%

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Petare FC

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Petare FC	23	+8	38
12	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	24	+1	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petare fc winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

50% The market48%

Us50%

~~Market~~48%

We make Petare FC a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · petare fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Petare FC win	50%	48%	+2
Draw	29%	28%	+2
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win	21%	24%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	66%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
Petare FC or draw	79%	76%	+3
Petare FC clean sheet	44%	–	–
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 11.9 7.5 3.7 1 13.5 13.3 5.1 2 10.4 8.6 3.6 3 5.1 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Petare FC down, Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,322 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 223 played.

Head to head

21 previous meetings, 1.95 goals a meeting; 6 of 21 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Petare FC at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Petare FC, 0.84 for Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

21 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.95

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 21

~~Both scored~~10 of 21

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–3 PET · PET 1–1 DIN · DIN 1–0 PET · PET 1–1 DIN

Form · last six in Segunda División

PETARE FC

WDLLWL3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–3

DINAMO DE PUERTO LA CRUZ

LLLDWW1–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	29	+29	63
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	30	+19	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	30	+14	49
4	Urena SC	29	+7	46
5	Monagas II	24	+12	45
6	Zamora FC B	29	+2	40
7	Atletico el Vigia FC	30	−10	40
8	Petare FC	23	+8	38
9	Bolívar	24	−1	37
10	Aragua FC	23	+6	36
11	Puerto Cabello II	30	−6	34
12	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	24	+1	32
13	Club Atletico Barinas	30	−11	32
14	Mineros de Guyana	24	−7	21
15	Marítimo	14	+3	20
16	Atletico Avila FC	24	−22	13
17	Real Frontera	29	−44	12