Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Segunda División › Monagas II v Petare FC

Back
Venezuela flag

Monagas II v Petare FC

Monagas II
1–0Full time
Petare FC

Segunda División · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:00
Monagas II 1–0 Petare FC MONAGAS II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Monagas II win41%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.531
The market’s Brier score0.553

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Monagas II win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Monagas II 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Monagas II v Petare FC
  4. 40′Monagas II score on 40′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  5. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Monagas II 1–0 Petare FC
  6. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Monagas II win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 41′We said Monagas II at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  8. 42′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Monagas II 1–0 Petare FC
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Monagas II 1–0 Petare FC
  11. 57′We said Monagas II at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
  12. 64′Petare FC are down to ten from 64′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 77–18–4
  13. 64′🟥 RED CARD · 64' Petare FC
  14. 69′We said Monagas II at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  15. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Monagas II win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  16. 76′We said Monagas II at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  17. 82′We said Monagas II at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  18. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Monagas II win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
  19. 89′We said Monagas II at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  20. FTFULL TIME Monagas II 1–0 Petare FC
  21. FTMonagas II 1–0 Petare FC · Monagas II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monagas II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Monagas II 41%, draw 27%, Petare FC 33%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Monagas II v Petare FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Monagas II win41%
Draw27%
Petare FC win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monagas II

Petare FC

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda División (Venezuela)

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda División (Venezuela)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Segunda División

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Monagas II23+1142
2Petare FC24+1041

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · monagas ii winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
41% The market39%
Us41%
Market39%

We make Monagas II a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Monagas II v Petare FC1.56 – 1.38
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 30 AugW3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 42 v 411 v 2
The market · Monagas II win39% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 14 OCT 04:5518 OCT 20:17
Our probability · Monagas II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Monagas II win41%39%+2
Draw27%30%−3
Petare FC win33%31%+2
Over 2.5 goals56%47%+9
Both teams to score59%53%+6
Over 1.5 goals79%71%+8
Over 3.5 goals34%27%+7
Monagas II or draw67%69%−2
Monagas II clean sheet26%––
Petare FC clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 6.9 6.4 5.1 2.4 1 7.3 12.3 7.6 3.5 2 6.4 8.5 5.8 2.7 3 3.3 4.4 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Monagas II down, Petare FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting2.86
Over 2.54 of 7
Both scored5 of 7
Last meetingsPET 1–1 MON · MON 2–0 PET · PET 0–0 MON · MON 2–3 PET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 30 Aug

MONAGAS II

DDWWLW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

PETARE FC

DLLWLW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–3 · 4–2

The table

2026 · Segunda División
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Monagas II23+1142
2Petare FC24+1041
3Aragua FC24+939
4Bolívar24−137
5Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz24032
6Mineros de Guyana25−1021
7Marítimo14+320
8Atletico Avila FC24−2213

The competition's standings before kick-off.