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Monagas II v Atletico Avila FC

Monagas II

1–0Full time

Atletico Avila FC

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Monagas II 1–0 Atletico Avila FC MONAGAS II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monagas II win~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.196

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monagas II win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Monagas II was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–20–14
1′KICK-OFF Monagas II v Atletico Avila FC
15′Much as we predicted: Monagas II was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–23–14
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Monagas II 0–1 Atletico Avila FC
45′HALF-TIME Monagas II 0–0 Atletico Avila FC
46′SECOND HALF Monagas II 0–0 Atletico Avila FC
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Monagas II 1–0 Atletico Avila FC
FTFULL TIME Monagas II 1–0 Atletico Avila FC
FTMonagas II 1–0 Atletico Avila FC · Monagas II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Monagas II win64%

Draw22%

Atletico Avila FC win14%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 08:30

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · monagas ii winPublished 10 Oct 20:35

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Monagas II a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monagas II win	64%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Atletico Avila FC win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Monagas II or draw	86%	–	–
Monagas II clean sheet	45%	–	–
Atletico Avila FC clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.7%

0123450 7.3 4.0 2.0 1 10.9 10.4 3.9 2 11.7 9.3 3.8 3 7.9 6.2 2.5 4 4.2 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monagas II down, Atletico Avila FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,320 Segunda División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 221 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monagas II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Avila FC away: 0.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Monagas II, 0.81 for Atletico Avila FC. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–3 MON · MON 2–0 ATL · ATL 0–1 MON

Form · last six in Segunda División

MONAGAS II

WDDWWL3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

ATLETICO AVILA FC

LLLLLL0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	29	+29	63
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	29	+20	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	29	+13	46
4	Urena SC	29	+7	46
5	Monagas II	23	+11	42
6	Zamora FC B	29	+2	40
7	Atletico el Vigia FC	30	−10	40
8	Petare FC	23	+8	38
9	Bolívar	24	−1	37
10	Aragua FC	23	+6	36
11	Puerto Cabello II	30	−6	34
12	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	24	+1	32
13	Club Atletico Barinas	30	−11	32
14	Mineros de Guyana	24	−7	21
15	Marítimo	14	+3	20
16	Atletico Avila FC	23	−21	13
17	Real Frontera	29	−44	12