Fundación Lara Deportiva v Deportivo Lara prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 02:02

Fundación Lara Deportiva 0–1 Deportivo Lara FUNDACIÓN LARA DEPORTIVA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fundación Lara Deportiva win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.643

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fundación Lara Deportiva win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Fundación Lara Deportiva 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–35
1′KICK-OFF Fundación Lara Deportiva v Deportivo Lara
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Fundación Lara Deportiva win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Fundación Lara Deportiva 0–0 Deportivo Lara
46′SECOND HALF Fundación Lara Deportiva 0–0 Deportivo Lara
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–48–26
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Fundación Lara Deportiva win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
60′We said Fundación Lara Deportiva at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
67′Deportivo Lara find the net on 67′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–18–79
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Fundación Lara Deportiva 0–1 Deportivo Lara
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Fundación Lara Deportiva win: 36% at kick-off, 3% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Deportivo Lara win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
68′We said Fundación Lara Deportiva at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
FTFULL TIME Fundación Lara Deportiva 0–1 Deportivo Lara
FTFundación Lara Deportiva 0–1 Deportivo Lara · Fundación Lara Deportiva win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Fundación Lara Deportiva just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fundación Lara Deportiva 36%, draw 30%, Deportivo Lara 35%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Fundación Lara Deportiva v Deportivo LaraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Fundación Lara Deportiva win36%

Draw30%

Deportivo Lara win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 35

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fundación Lara Deportiva

Deportivo Lara

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela

Last match: 15 Oct · Copa Venezuela

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fundación lara deportiva winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Fundación Lara Deportiva a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fundación Lara Deportiva v Deportivo Lara~~1.25 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 53 v 66~~2 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fundación Lara Deportiva win	36%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Deportivo Lara win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw	65%	–	–
Fundación Lara Deportiva clean sheet	30%	–	–
Deportivo Lara clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.1 9.2 6.3 2.6 1 9.4 13.9 7.7 3.2 2 6.6 7.8 4.7 3 2.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fundación Lara Deportiva down, Deportivo Lara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,327 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Lara away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Fundación Lara Deportiva, 1.22 for Deportivo Lara. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–1 FUN · FUN 0–1 DEP · DEP 1–1 FUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

FUNDACIÓN LARA DEPORTIVA

DWWWLL1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 2–3

DEPORTIVO LARA

WWWWLW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Segunda División

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	30	+31	66
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	30	+19	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	30	+14	49
4	Urena SC	30	+7	47
5	Atletico el Vigia FC	31	−10	41
6	Zamora FC B	30	0	40
7	Puerto Cabello II	31	−9	34
8	Club Atletico Barinas	30	−11	32
9	Real Frontera	30	−41	15