Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz v Aragua FC prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:00

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2–2 Aragua FC DINAMO DE PUERTO LA CRUZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.658

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–34–28
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz v Aragua FC
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win 34%)
32′A goal for Aragua FC on 32′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 0–1 Aragua FC
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 10% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Aragua FC win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
33′We said Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
34′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 9–23–68
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 0–1 Aragua FC
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 0–1 Aragua FC
57′We said Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
58′Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz score on 58′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 24–57–19
58′We said Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1–1 Aragua FC
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 24% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Aragua FC win 19%)
65′Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz find the net on 65′. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
65′We published Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 38%. Our model now makes it 84%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2–1 Aragua FC
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 84% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
66′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 84–14–2
69′We published Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
74′A goal for Aragua FC on 73′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 15–73–12
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2–2 Aragua FC
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 15% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win 15%)
76′We said Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–76–11
76′4 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 13–76–11
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
FTFULL TIME Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2–2 Aragua FC
FTDinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2–2 Aragua FC · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 38%, draw 34%, Aragua FC 28%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz v Aragua FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win38%

Draw34%

Aragua FC win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Aragua FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Aragua FC	24	+9	39
5	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	24	0	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinamo de puerto la cruz winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz v Aragua FC~~1.05 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 32 v 39~~5 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz win	38%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Aragua FC win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz or draw	72%	–	–
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz clean sheet	43%	–	–
Aragua FC clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.4%

0123450 16.4 11.4 5.5 1 14.1 14.3 5.7 2 8.1 6.8 3.0 3 2.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz down, Aragua FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,327 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Aragua FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz, 0.87 for Aragua FC. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ARA 2–0 DIN · DIN 1–2 ARA · ARA 1–1 DIN · ARA 1–1 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 29 Aug

DINAMO DE PUERTO LA CRUZ

LLDWWL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–4

ARAGUA FC

WDWDWW2–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026 · Segunda División

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monagas II	23	+11	42
2	Petare FC	24	+10	41
3	Aragua FC	24	+9	39
4	Bolívar	24	−1	37
5	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	24	0	32
6	Mineros de Guyana	25	−10	21
7	Marítimo	14	+3	20
8	Atletico Avila FC	24	−22	13