Bolívar v Petare FC prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BolívarDrawPetare FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Petare FC 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Petare FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bolívar 34%, draw 29%, Petare FC 37%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Bolívar v Petare FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 09:22 · locked at kick-off

Bolívar win34%

Draw29%

Petare FC win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bolívar

Petare FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División (Venezuela)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Petare FC	25	+9	41
4	Bolívar	25	0	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petare fc winFirst published 23 Oct 09:22 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Petare FC a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bolívar v Petare FC~~1.21 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 40 v 41~~4 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bolívar win	34%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Petare FC win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Bolívar or draw	63%	–	–
Bolívar clean sheet	29%	–	–
Petare FC clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.9 9.6 6.7 2.9 1 9.3 13.6 7.8 3.4 2 6.2 7.5 4.7 2.0 3 2.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bolívar down, Petare FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,334 Segunda División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 235 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bolívar at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Petare FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Bolívar, 1.26 for Petare FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PET 1–2 BOL · BOL 2–0 PET · PET 1–0 BOL · PET 3–2 BOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept

BOLÍVAR

LDLWW1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

PETARE FC

LWLWL1–2 · 4–0 · 2–3 · 4–2 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Segunda División

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monagas II	24	+12	45
2	Petare FC	25	+9	41
3	Aragua FC	25	+9	40
4	Bolívar	25	0	40
5	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	25	0	33
6	Mineros de Guyana	25	−10	21
7	Marítimo	14	+3	20
8	Atletico Avila FC	25	−23	13