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Atletico el Vigia FC v Urena SC

Atletico el Vigia FC

2–2Full time

Urena SC

Segunda División · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:00

Atletico el Vigia FC 2–2 Urena SC ATLETICO EL VIGIA FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico el Vigia FC win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.823

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico el Vigia FC win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico el Vigia FC was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
31′Much as we predicted: Atletico el Vigia FC was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–32–27
54′We said Atletico el Vigia FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 37% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 37% now
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Atletico el Vigia FC 0–1 Urena SC
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Atletico el Vigia FC 0–2 Urena SC
71′⚽ GOAL · 60' Atletico el Vigia FC 0–2 Urena SC
71′⚽ GOAL · 67' Atletico el Vigia FC 0–2 Urena SC
75′67′ and it is 0–2: Urena SC have scored. 0–2 · 0–2–97
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 0% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Urena SC win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 2%)
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Urena SC win 23%)
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 0% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Urena SC win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 2%)
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Urena SC win 23%)
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Urena SC win 23%)
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 0% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Urena SC win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 2%)
78′67′ and it is 0–2: Urena SC have scored. 0–2 · 0–2–98
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 0% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Urena SC win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Atletico el Vigia FC 1–2 Urena SC
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Urena SC win 23%)
79′Atletico el Vigia FC find the net on 78′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 0% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Urena SC win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Urena SC win 23%)
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Atletico el Vigia FC win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Urena SC win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Atletico el Vigia FC 2–2 Urena SC
FTFULL TIME Atletico el Vigia FC 2–2 Urena SC
FTAtletico el Vigia FC 2–2 Urena SC · Atletico el Vigia FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 10 Oct 00:00

Atletico el Vigia FC win46%

Draw27%

Urena SC win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico el Vigia FC

Urena SC

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Urena SC	29	+7	46
7	Atletico el Vigia FC	30	−10	40

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico el vigia fc winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Atletico el Vigia FC a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico el Vigia FC win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Urena SC win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Atletico el Vigia FC or draw	73%	–	–
Atletico el Vigia FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
Urena SC clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.4 6.2 4.3 1 8.6 12.5 6.8 2.7 2 7.8 9.1 5.4 2.2 3 4.2 4.9 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico el Vigia FC down, Urena SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,322 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 223 played.

Head to head

19 previous meetings, 3.32 goals a meeting; 10 of 19 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico el Vigia FC at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Urena SC away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Atletico el Vigia FC, 1.20 for Urena SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

19 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.32

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 19

~~Both scored~~14 of 19

~~Last meetings~~URE 0–1 ATL · ATL 1–2 URE · URE 1–1 ATL · URE 1–0 ATL

Form · last six in Segunda División

ATLETICO EL VIGIA FC

WLWDWW1–0 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 4–2

URENA SC

LWWLLD0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	29	+29	63
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	30	+19	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	30	+14	49
4	Urena SC	29	+7	46
5	Monagas II	24	+12	45
6	Zamora FC B	29	+2	40
7	Atletico el Vigia FC	30	−10	40
8	Petare FC	23	+8	38
9	Bolívar	24	−1	37
10	Aragua FC	23	+6	36
11	Puerto Cabello II	30	−6	34
12	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	24	+1	32
13	Club Atletico Barinas	30	−11	32
14	Mineros de Guyana	24	−7	21
15	Marítimo	14	+3	20
16	Atletico Avila FC	24	−22	13
17	Real Frontera	29	−44	12