Home › Football › Segunda División › Atletico Avila FC v Bolívar
Back

Atletico Avila FC v Bolívar
Atletico Avila FC
BolívarSegunda División · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Bolívar win at 35%.
- 1′Bolívar find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–19–68
- 1′KICK-OFF Atletico Avila FC v Bolívar
- 1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Atletico Avila FC 0–1 Bolívar
- 1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 68% now
- 2′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 13–20–68
- 20′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
- 31′A goal for Bolívar on 31′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–92
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Atletico Avila FC 0–2 Bolívar
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 92% now
- 32′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
- 36′Atletico Avila FC score on 36′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–20–72
- 36′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 7–20–72
- 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Atletico Avila FC 1–2 Bolívar
- 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 72% now
- 45′PENALTY MISSED · 44' Bolívar
- 45′HALF-TIME Atletico Avila FC 1–2 Bolívar
- 46′SECOND HALF Atletico Avila FC 1–2 Bolívar
- 47′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–20–75
- 62′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
- 64′Atletico Avila FC find the net on 64′. 2–2. 2–2 · 19–61–20
- 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Atletico Avila FC 2–2 Bolívar
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 20% now
- 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Bolívar win 20%)
- 65′We said Bolívar at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 2–2 · 19–62–20
- 65′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 19–62–20
- 66′We said Bolívar at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 18–63–19
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
- 75′We said Bolívar at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 13–73–14
- 81′We said Bolívar at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–82–9
- 82′A goal for Bolívar on 82′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–7–92
- 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Atletico Avila FC 2–3 Bolívar
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 92% now
- 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Bolívar win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
- 83′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–7–93
- 86′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
- FTFULL TIME Atletico Avila FC 2–3 Bolívar
- FTAtletico Avila FC 2–3 Bolívar · Bolívar win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Bolívar just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Avila FC 32%, draw 33%, Bolívar 35%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
Atletico Avila FC win32%
Bolívar win35%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:30
RoundMatchday 27
Match timeline
All events
Atletico Avila FCMIN
BolívarEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Atletico Avila FC
Bolívar
Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela
Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Bolívar a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Avila FC win | 32% | 27% | +5 |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | +2 |
| Bolívar win | 35% | 43% | −8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 44% | −10 |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 50% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | 69% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 25% | −9 |
| Atletico Avila FC or draw | 65% | 57% | +8 |
| Atletico Avila FC clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Bolívar clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2026Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 30 Aug
ATLETICO AVILA FC
BOLÍVAR
The table
2026 · Segunda División| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monagas II | 23 | +11 | 42 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 24 | +10 | 41 |
| 3 | Aragua FC | 24 | +9 | 39 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 24 | −1 | 37 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 24 | 0 | 32 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 25 | −10 | 21 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 14 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 24 | −22 | 13 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Monagas II
Petare FC
Aragua FC
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
Mineros de Guyana
Marítimo