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Atletico Avila FC v Bolívar

Atletico Avila FC
2–3Full time
Bolívar

Segunda División · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:00
Atletico Avila FC 2–3 Bolívar BOLÍVAR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bolívar win35%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.638
The market’s Brier score0.495

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bolívar win at 35%.
  2. 1′Bolívar find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–19–68
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Atletico Avila FC v Bolívar
  4. 1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Atletico Avila FC 0–1 Bolívar
  5. 1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 68% now
  6. 2′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 13–20–68
  7. 20′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 8–21–71
  9. 31′A goal for Bolívar on 31′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–92
  10. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Atletico Avila FC 0–2 Bolívar
  11. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 92% now
  12. 32′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
  13. 36′Atletico Avila FC score on 36′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–20–72
  14. 36′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 7–20–72
  15. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Atletico Avila FC 1–2 Bolívar
  16. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 72% now
  17. 45′PENALTY MISSED · 44' Bolívar
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Atletico Avila FC 1–2 Bolívar
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Atletico Avila FC 1–2 Bolívar
  20. 47′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–20–75
  21. 62′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  22. 64′Atletico Avila FC find the net on 64′. 2–2. 2–2 · 19–61–20
  23. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Atletico Avila FC 2–2 Bolívar
  24. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 20% now
  25. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Bolívar win 20%)
  26. 65′We said Bolívar at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 2–2 · 19–62–20
  27. 65′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 19–62–20
  28. 66′We said Bolívar at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 18–63–19
  29. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
  30. 75′We said Bolívar at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 13–73–14
  31. 81′We said Bolívar at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–82–9
  32. 82′A goal for Bolívar on 82′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–7–92
  33. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Atletico Avila FC 2–3 Bolívar
  34. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 92% now
  35. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Bolívar win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
  36. 83′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–7–93
  37. 86′We said Bolívar at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
  38. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Bolívar win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
  39. FTFULL TIME Atletico Avila FC 2–3 Bolívar
  40. FTAtletico Avila FC 2–3 Bolívar · Bolívar win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bolívar just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Avila FC 32%, draw 33%, Bolívar 35%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Avila FC v BolívarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Avila FC win32%
Draw33%
Bolívar win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Avila FC

Bolívar

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Segunda División

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Bolívar24−137
8Atletico Avila FC24−2213

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bolívar winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
35% The market43%
Us35%
Market43%

We make Bolívar a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Atletico Avila FC v Bolívar1.00 – 1.05
Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 30 AugW0 D0 L6 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 13 v 378 v 4
The market · Bolívar win43% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 14 OCT 04:5518 OCT 20:17
Our probability · Bolívar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atletico Avila FC win32%27%+5
Draw33%31%+2
Bolívar win35%43%−8
Over 2.5 goals34%44%−10
Both teams to score42%50%−8
Over 1.5 goals62%69%−7
Over 3.5 goals16%25%−9
Atletico Avila FC or draw65%57%+8
Atletico Avila FC clean sheet36%––
Bolívar clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.6%
0123450 14.6 12.2 7.1 2.6 1 11.5 14.4 6.9 2.5 2 6.4 6.6 3.4 3 2.2 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Avila FC down, Bolívar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsBOL 2–1 ATL · ATL 0–0 BOL · BOL 2–2 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 30 Aug

ATLETICO AVILA FC

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

BOLÍVAR

WWLDLW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Segunda División
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Monagas II23+1142
2Petare FC24+1041
3Aragua FC24+939
4Bolívar24−137
5Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz24032
6Mineros de Guyana25−1021
7Marítimo14+320
8Atletico Avila FC24−2213

The competition's standings before kick-off.