Aragua FC v Monagas II prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Aragua FCDrawMonagas II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Aragua FC 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aragua FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aragua FC 48%, draw 28%, Monagas II 24%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Aragua FC v Monagas IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 09:22 · locked at kick-off

Aragua FC win48%

Draw28%

Monagas II win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 28

VenueEstadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aragua FC

Monagas II

4Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa Venezuela

Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División (Venezuela)

4Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aragua fc winFirst published 23 Oct 09:22 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Aragua FC a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aragua FC v Monagas II~~1.48 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 40 v 45~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aragua FC win	48%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Monagas II win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Aragua FC or draw	76%	–	–
Aragua FC clean sheet	39%	–	–
Monagas II clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.3 7.5 4.1 1 12.0 13.1 5.8 2 9.5 8.8 4.2 3 4.7 4.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aragua FC down, Monagas II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,334 Segunda División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 235 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aragua FC at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Monagas II away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Aragua FC, 0.95 for Monagas II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MON 2–2 ARA · ARA 1–2 MON · MON 1–0 ARA · MON 1–0 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 13 Sept

ARAGUA FC

WDWWD2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–2

MONAGAS II

WWLWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Segunda División

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Monagas II	24	+12	45
2	Petare FC	25	+9	41
3	Aragua FC	25	+9	40
4	Bolívar	25	0	40
5	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	25	0	33
6	Mineros de Guyana	25	−10	21
7	Marítimo	14	+3	20
8	Atletico Avila FC	25	−23	13