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Aragua FC v Mineros de Guyana

Aragua FC

3–0Full time

Mineros de Guyana

Segunda División · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Aragua FC 3–0 Mineros de Guyana ARAGUA FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aragua FC win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.388

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 44 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aragua FC win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aragua FC was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–29–21
1′KICK-OFF Aragua FC v Mineros de Guyana
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Aragua FC 1–0 Mineros de Guyana
22′12′ and it is 1–0: Aragua FC have scored. 1–0 · 80–15–5
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
28′12′ and it is 1–0: Aragua FC have scored. 1–0 · 81–15–4
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Aragua FC 2–0 Mineros de Guyana
42′Aragua FC find the net on 40′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
45′We published Aragua FC at 50%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
45′HALF-TIME Aragua FC 2–0 Mineros de Guyana
45′⚽ GOAL · 12' Aragua FC 2–0 Mineros de Guyana
45′⚽ GOAL · 40' Aragua FC 2–0 Mineros de Guyana
46′SECOND HALF Aragua FC 2–0 Mineros de Guyana
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Aragua FC 3–0 Mineros de Guyana
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Aragua FC win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Aragua FC 3–0 Mineros de Guyana
FTAragua FC 3–0 Mineros de Guyana · Aragua FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 10 Oct 00:00

Aragua FC win50%

Draw31%

Mineros de Guyana win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

VenueEstadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aragua FC

Mineros de Guyana

14Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Aragua FC	23	+6	36
14	Mineros de Guyana	24	−7	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aragua fc winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Aragua FC a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aragua FC win	50%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Mineros de Guyana win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Aragua FC or draw	80%	–	–
Aragua FC clean sheet	48%	–	–
Mineros de Guyana clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.5%

0123450 14.2 8.1 3.5 1 15.5 13.3 4.5 2 11.1 8.0 3.0 3 5.0 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aragua FC down, Mineros de Guyana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,322 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 223 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.86 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aragua FC at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Mineros de Guyana away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Aragua FC, 0.74 for Mineros de Guyana. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MIN 1–1 ARA · ARA 2–0 MIN · MIN 1–2 ARA · MIN 3–0 ARA

Form · last six in Segunda División

ARAGUA FC

DWDWDW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

MINEROS DE GUYANA

DWWDLW1–1 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Lara	29	+29	63
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	30	+19	53
3	Yaracuyanos FC	30	+14	49
4	Urena SC	29	+7	46
5	Monagas II	24	+12	45
6	Zamora FC B	29	+2	40
7	Atletico el Vigia FC	30	−10	40
8	Petare FC	23	+8	38
9	Bolívar	24	−1	37
10	Aragua FC	23	+6	36
11	Puerto Cabello II	30	−6	34
12	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	24	+1	32
13	Club Atletico Barinas	30	−11	32
14	Mineros de Guyana	24	−7	21
15	Marítimo	14	+3	20
16	Atletico Avila FC	24	−22	13
17	Real Frontera	29	−44	12