Zamora FC v Anzoátegui FC prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

Zamora FC 1–2 Anzoátegui FC ZAMORA FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zamora FC win~~46%

~~The market said~~21%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.348

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zamora FC win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zamora FC was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–25
1′KICK-OFF Zamora FC v Anzoátegui FC
4′Anzoátegui FC find the net on 1′. 0–0 · 45–30–25
5′PENALTY MISSED · 3' Guillermo Marin · Anzoátegui FC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Zamora FC win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Zamora FC win 36%)
45′SECOND HALF Zamora FC 0–0 Anzoátegui FC
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Erickson Gallardo · Zamora FC
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Zamora FC · On: Sergio·Sulbaran · Off: Cristian Diaz
49′HALF-TIME Zamora FC 0–0 Anzoátegui FC
50′We said Zamora FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–21
56′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–49–20
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Anzoátegui FC · On: Jose Daniel Lovera · Off: Carlos Barrios
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Anzoátegui FC · On: Edanyilber Navas · Off: Emerson Ruiz
61′We said Zamora FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–19
62′We said Zamora FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–22–72
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Zamora FC 0–1 Anzoátegui FC
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Zamora FC win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Anzoátegui FC win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 22%)
67′Edanyilber Navas scores for Anzoátegui FC on 62′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–21–75
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Zamora FC · On: hector manrique · Off: Santos Torrealba
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Zamora FC · On: Santiago Gomez Mejia · Off: Erickson Gallardo
68′We said Zamora FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Zamora FC · On: Jose Sequera · Off: Jean Exime
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Anzoátegui FC · On: Abrahan Wilfredo Moreno · Off: Deivid Tegues
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zamora FC · On: nestor jimenez · Off: José Sinisterra
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Anzoátegui FC · On: Carlos Lujano · Off: Didier Antonio Bueno Perea
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Anzoátegui FC · On: Frannaicel Sinza · Off: Guillermo Marin
86′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Zamora FC 0–2 Anzoátegui FC
88′85′: Edanyilber Navas on the scoresheet for Anzoátegui FC, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–2–98
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Zamora FC 1–2 Anzoátegui FC
95′Full time, 1–2. We called Zamora FC at 46% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Zamora FC 1–2 Anzoátegui FC
FTZamora FC 1–2 Anzoátegui FC · Zamora FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zamora FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zamora FC 46%, draw 29%, Anzoátegui FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Zamora FC v Anzoátegui FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zamora FC win46%

Draw29%

Anzoátegui FC win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

Line-ups

Zamora FC

4-4-2

Anzoátegui FC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zamora FC

Anzoátegui FC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Zamora FC	25	−14	25
14	Anzoátegui FC	25	−25	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Zamora FC

4-4-2

1 E. Paredes

40 I. Valladares

13 A. Matos

25 J. Mosquera

28 J. Exime

7 E. Gallardo

27 C. M. Diaz Moreno

8 A. Flores

38 J. Sinisterra

9 Jose Flores

30 S. Torrealba

Coach · Josue Ortíz

Substitutes

20 · S. Sulbarán

2 · S. Gómez

77 · N. Jiménez

5 · Angel Leon

11 · hector manrique

6 · J. Moreno

18 · A. Rivas

4 · B. Rodríguez

80 · F. Ruiz

10 · J. Sequera

12 · Italo sulbaran

Anzoátegui FC

4-4-2

1 W. Hernández

2 P. Bonilla

14 D. Bueno

22 D. Guevara

16 J. Silgado

7 G. Marín

5 J. Pacheco

8 E. Ruiz

77 C. Barrios

19 D. Tegues

9 C. Ortiz

Coach · M. Zuleta

Substitutes

24 · C. Cermeño

15 · Gianpaolo Diciolla

6 · Abdallah Kafrouni

18 · J. Lovera

3 · C. Lujano

55 · A. Moreno

11 · E. Navas

45 · P. Perez

70 · P. Rojas

99 · F. Sinza

13 · J. Agüero

20 · J. Castellano

Our number · zamora fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market21%

Us46%

~~Market~~21%

We make Zamora FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 21%. We are 25 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zamora FC v Anzoátegui FC~~1.45 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 2 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 25 v 14~~11 v 14

~~The market · Zamora FC win~~21% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zamora FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 21% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zamora FC win	46%	21%	+25
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Anzoátegui FC win	25%	52%	−27
Over 2.5 goals	45%	51%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	31%	−7
Zamora FC or draw	75%	48%	+27
Zamora FC clean sheet	37%	–	–
Anzoátegui FC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.2 7.1 4.4 1 10.9 13.8 6.2 2.1 2 8.9 8.9 4.5 3 4.4 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zamora FC down, Anzoátegui FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,469 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.7% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zamora FC at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Anzoátegui FC away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Zamora FC, 1.01 for Anzoátegui FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 20:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ANZ 1–1 ZAM · ZAM 2–1 ANZ · ANZ 2–0 ZAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 2 Sept

ZAMORA FC

LDLLLL2–5 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–4

ANZOÁTEGUI FC

LLLLDL1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	25	+26	56
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	25	+18	50
3	Deportivo La Guaira	25	+14	44
4	Carabobo FC	25	+14	40
5	Puerto Cabello	25	+9	39
6	Portuguesa FC	25	+10	38
7	UCV	25	+2	38
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	25	+2	36
9	Caracas FC	25	−4	29
10	Monagas SC	25	−8	28
11	Zamora FC	25	−14	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	25	−20	25
13	Trujillanos FC	25	−24	15
14	Anzoátegui FC	25	−25	14