UCV v Portuguesa FC prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:00

UCV 0–0 Portuguesa FC UCV WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UCV win~~45%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.775

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.798

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UCV win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: UCV was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
1′KICK-OFF UCV v Portuguesa FC
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Portuguesa FC
38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Samuel Sosa · UCV
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was UCV win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME UCV 0–0 Portuguesa FC
46′SECOND HALF UCV 0–0 Portuguesa FC
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' UCV win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Portuguesa FC · On: Nestor Trejo · Off: german aguirre
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Portuguesa FC · On: Alejandro Yepez · Off: Christopher Montaña
52′We said UCV at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–45–22
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–47–21
60′We said UCV at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–19
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Portuguesa FC · On: Joel Martínez · Off: Victor Hugo·Navas Barrera
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' UCV win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
68′We said UCV at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–16
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' UCV · On: Williams José Lugo Ladera · Off: Daniel Badillo Sousa
75′We said UCV at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–13
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' UCV · On: Jesus Colmenarez · Off: Alexander Gonzalez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Portuguesa FC · On: Albaro Polo · Off: Ruben Rojas
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' UCV win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
80′We said UCV at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
85′We said UCV at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–6
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' UCV · On: Roberto Sarli · Off: Edwin Mosquera
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' UCV · On: Yohan Cumana · Off: Daniel Carrillo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' UCV · On: Vicente Rodríguez · Off: Francisco Solé
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' UCV win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
91′We said UCV at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
92′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Ovidio·Lopez · Portuguesa FC
92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Portuguesa FC · On: Ricardo Toussaint · Off: Jonathan Canete
FTFULL TIME UCV 0–0 Portuguesa FC
FTUCV 0–0 Portuguesa FC · UCV win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UCV are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UCV 45%, draw 29%, Portuguesa FC 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on UCV v Portuguesa FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

UCV win45%

Draw29%

Portuguesa FC win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:30

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Olimpico de la UCV

Line-ups

UCV

4-4-2

Portuguesa FC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UCV

Portuguesa FC

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Portuguesa FC	12	+2	18
9	UCV	12	−2	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

UCV

4-4-2

22 R. Romo

28 M. Ruiz

2 K. Silva

6 G. Mottes

27 D. Carrillo

10 S. Sosa

30 A. González

5 F. Solé

7 E. Mosquera

16 D. De Sousa

8 J. Zapata

Coach · Luis De Oliveira

Substitutes

9 · J. Alegría

44 · Jesus Colmenarez

24 · Y. Cumaná

12 · C. González

25 · S. Hernandez

11 · W. Lugo

35 · D. Ochoa

3 · S. Pabón

21 · V. Rodríguez

18 · R. Sarli

1 · G. Schiavone

17 · Alexsamir Hernandez

Portuguesa FC

4-4-2

22 J. Reyes

66 C. Urpín

33 M. Acuña

3 German Aguirre

2 G. Benítez

13 V. Navas

24 L. Lovazzano

18 C. Montaña

19 O. López

9 J. Cañete

7 R. Rojas

Coach · Leo González

Substitutes

26 · A. Yepez

6 · A. Trujillo

4 · N. Trejo

8 · R. Toussaint

5 · J. Soto

1 · Samuel Rodriguez

23 · A. Polo

20 · J. Pérez

29 · W. Pena

21 · R. Mendoza

14 · H. García

99 · J. Martínez

Our number · ucv winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market48%

Us45%

~~Market~~48%

We make UCV a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UCV v Portuguesa FC~~1.47 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~9 v 5

~~The market · UCV win~~48% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · UCV win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UCV win	45%	48%	−3
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Portuguesa FC win	26%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	48%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	51%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−3
UCV or draw	74%	77%	−3
UCV clean sheet	35%	–	–
Portuguesa FC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 9.7 7.0 4.5 1 10.3 13.7 6.4 2.3 2 8.6 9.0 4.7 3 4.3 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UCV down, Portuguesa FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Primera División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 202 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UCV at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Portuguesa FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for UCV, 1.05 for Portuguesa FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UCV 2–3 POR · POR 1–1 UCV · POR 3–0 UCV · UCV 2–0 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 2 Sept

UCV

DDWWDL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–4

PORTUGUESA FC

DDDWLD1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	12	+19	31
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	12	+13	26
3	Puerto Cabello	12	+7	22
4	Carabobo FC	12	+5	21
5	Portuguesa FC	12	+2	18
6	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17
7	Monagas SC	12	0	17
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	12	−1	16
9	UCV	12	−2	15
10	Caracas FC	12	−2	14
11	Trujillanos FC	13	−6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	12	−10	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	−14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	−15	8