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Trujillanos FC v Puerto Cabello

Trujillanos FC

0–1Full time

Puerto Cabello

Primera División · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Trujillanos FC 0–1 Puerto Cabello PUERTO CABELLO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Puerto Cabello win~~53%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.337

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.314

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 49 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Puerto Cabello win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Puerto Cabello 53% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 20–25–54
27′Little has changed for our model: Puerto Cabello 53% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 20–32–48
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 48% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 48% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′We said Puerto Cabello at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 18–40–41
45′SECOND HALF Trujillanos FC 0–0 Puerto Cabello
46′We said Puerto Cabello at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 18–41–41
46′HALF-TIME Trujillanos FC 0–0 Puerto Cabello
48′We said Puerto Cabello at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 18–42–40
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Trujillanos FC · On: J. Paredes · Off: D. Linarez
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Trujillanos FC · On: E. Abreu · Off: L. Mosquera
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' R. D. Flores Barrios · Puerto Cabello
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Trujillanos FC 0–1 Puerto Cabello
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' Trujillanos FC 0–1 Puerto Cabello · R. D. Flores Barrios
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' M. Granados · Trujillanos FC
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' G. Gonzalez · Puerto Cabello
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Puerto Cabello · On: D. Osorio · Off: E. Pernia
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Puerto Cabello · On: J. Hernandez · Off: D. Saggiomo
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Puerto Cabello · On: J. Ortuno · Off: J. Castillo
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Puerto Cabello · On: J. Moreno · Off: G. Gonzalez
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' J. Paredes · Trujillanos FC
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Trujillanos FC · On: J. Mendez · Off: M. Gonzalez
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Trujillanos FC · On: J. Echeverria · Off: F. Gonzalez
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Trujillanos FC · On: J. Carmona · Off: A. Araujo
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Puerto Cabello · On: P. Lima · Off: H. Contreras
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Puerto Cabello win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
FTFULL TIME Trujillanos FC 0–1 Puerto Cabello
FTTrujillanos FC 0–1 Puerto Cabello · Puerto Cabello win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Trujillanos FC win19%

Draw28%

Puerto Cabello win53%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

Line-ups

Trujillanos FC

Puerto Cabello

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Trujillanos FC

Puerto Cabello

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Puerto Cabello	31	+8	46
13	Trujillanos FC	24	−23	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Trujillanos FC

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Lopez

15 D. Rodriguez

4 E. Gnemmi

30 J. Granados

33 M. Gonzalez

88 M. Granados

22 K. Gonzalez

11 L. Mosquera

90 D. Linarez

26 A. Araujo

9 F. Gonzalez

Coach · Oswaldo Chaurant

Substitutes

12 · O. Garcia

6 · J. Gonzalez

2 · B. Morales

8 · J. Echeverria

77 · G. Parra

10 · E. Abreu

25 · J. E. Andara Garcia

7 · C. Santos

35 · D. Nakache

23 · J. Paredes

36 · J. Carmona

18 · J. Mendez

Puerto Cabello

Formation not confirmed

55 L. Romero

29 J. Vargas

4 F. Baptista

14 G. Bortagaray

16 R. Rosales

5 G. Gonzalez

15 D. Saggiomo

24 H. Contreras

70 R. D. Flores Barrios

11 E. Pernia

19 J. Castillo

Coach · Eduardo Sarago

Substitutes

12 · E. Herrera

30 · L. Casiani

27 · H. Linares

44 · G. Melendez

8 · J. Moreno

41 · L. Cova

6 · P. Lima

40 · J. Ortuno

31 · J. Hernandez

9 · A. Ponce

28 · D. Osorio

Our number · puerto cabello winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

53% The market54%

Us53%

~~Market~~54%

We make Puerto Cabello a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · puerto cabello win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trujillanos FC win	19%	19%	0
Draw	28%	26%	+1
Puerto Cabello win	53%	54%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Trujillanos FC or draw	47%	46%	+2
Trujillanos FC clean sheet	21%	–	–
Puerto Cabello clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.3 12.2 10.8 5.9 2.5 1 6.1 12.9 9.0 4.8 2 3.3 5.0 3.9 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trujillanos FC down, Puerto Cabello across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,465 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trujillanos FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Puerto Cabello away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Trujillanos FC, 1.60 for Puerto Cabello. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PUE 3–1 TRU

Form · last six in Primera División

TRUJILLANOS FC

WLLWLD3–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–1

PUERTO CABELLO

WDDLDW3–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	31	+24	64
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	30	+18	58
3	Carabobo FC	31	+19	51
4	Deportivo La Guaira	31	+14	51
5	Portuguesa FC	31	+9	46
6	Puerto Cabello	31	+8	46
7	UCV	31	+2	44
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	30	−3	39
9	Caracas FC	24	−7	26
10	Monagas SC	24	−9	25
11	Zamora FC	24	−11	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	25	−20	25
13	Trujillanos FC	24	−23	15
14	Anzoátegui FC	23	−21	14