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Puerto Cabello v Monagas SC

Puerto Cabello

3–3Full time

Monagas SC

Primera División · SUN 18 OCT · Complejo Deportivo Socialista

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:00

Puerto Cabello 3–3 Monagas SC PUERTO CABELLO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Puerto Cabello win~~51%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.813

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.900

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Puerto Cabello win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Puerto Cabello was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–29–20
1′KICK-OFF Puerto Cabello v Monagas SC
5′We published Puerto Cabello at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Puerto Cabello 1–0 Monagas SC
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Puerto Cabello win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
6′Puerto Cabello find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–7
9′We published Puerto Cabello at 51%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Puerto Cabello 1–1 Monagas SC
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Puerto Cabello win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
19′Luis González scores for Monagas SC on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 47–32–20
36′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 80–15–5
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Puerto Cabello 2–1 Monagas SC
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Puerto Cabello win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
39′36′: Diego Osorio on the scoresheet for Puerto Cabello, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 80–15–4
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Puerto Cabello win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
45′SECOND HALF Puerto Cabello 2–1 Monagas SC
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Puerto Cabello · On: Geremias Melendez · Off: Heiber Linares
50′HALF-TIME Puerto Cabello 2–1 Monagas SC
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Puerto Cabello · On: Roberto Rosales · Off: Fabricio Baptista
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Monagas SC · On: Andrés Romero · Off: henry diaz
63′We published Puerto Cabello at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Puerto Cabello · On: Jean Castillo · Off: Jose Mendoza
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Puerto Cabello · On: Pablo Lima · Off: Musa Isah
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Monagas SC · On: Saul Asibe · Off: Cristian Ramirez
66′We published Puerto Cabello at 51%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Puerto Cabello 3–1 Monagas SC
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Puerto Cabello win: 51% at kick-off, 98% now
67′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–1–0
68′Puerto Cabello ahead on 67′ through Diego Osorio. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
72′GOAL DISALLOWED · 72' Puerto Cabello
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Puerto Cabello 3–1 Monagas SC
77′We published Puerto Cabello at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Puerto Cabello 3–2 Monagas SC
78′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 91–9–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Puerto Cabello · On: Júnior Moreno · Off: Harrison Contreras
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Monagas SC · On: Antonio Romero · Off: Felipe Jaramillo
82′77′: Luis González on the scoresheet for Monagas SC. 3–3 · 12–82–7
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Puerto Cabello 3–3 Monagas SC
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Puerto Cabello win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Puerto Cabello win 12%)
83′We said Puerto Cabello at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 3–3 · 11–84–6
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Puerto Cabello win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
84′We said Puerto Cabello at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 3–3 · 9–86–5
84′6 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 9–86–5
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Monagas SC · On: Edder Farias · Off: Fernando Basante Corrected
85′83′: Andrés Romero on the scoresheet for Monagas SC, making it 3–3. 3–3 · 9–87–5
86′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Monagas SC · On: Edder Farias · Off: Fernando Basante
89′82′: Andrés Romero on the scoresheet for Monagas SC, making it 3–3. 3–3 · 6–91–3
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Monagas SC · On: Alexis Rodas · Off: Luis González
92′We said Puerto Cabello at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 3–3 · 3–95–2
96′Full time, 3–3. We called Puerto Cabello at 51% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 3–3 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Puerto Cabello 3–3 Monagas SC
FTPuerto Cabello 3–3 Monagas SC · Puerto Cabello win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Puerto Cabello are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Puerto Cabello 51%, draw 29%, Monagas SC 20%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Puerto Cabello v Monagas SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Puerto Cabello win51%

Draw29%

Monagas SC win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:30

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueComplejo Deportivo Socialista

Line-ups

Puerto Cabello

4-3-3

Monagas SC

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puerto Cabello

Monagas SC

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Puerto Cabello	12	+7	22
7	Monagas SC	12	0	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Puerto Cabello

4-3-3

1 J. Graterol

29 J. Vargas

4 F. Baptista

14 G. Bortagaray

30 L. Casiani

77 M. Isah

36 Jose Mendoza

24 H. Contreras

15 D. Saggiomo

28 D. Osorio

27 Heiber Eduardo Linares Martínez

Coach · E. Saragó

Substitutes

19 · J. Castillo

41 · L. Cova

5 · G. González

6 · P. Lima

44 · G. Meléndez

8 · J. Moreno

35 · rafael pacheco

11 · E. Pernía

9 · A. Ponce

55 · L. Romero

16 · R. Rosales

21 · Jose Arenas

Monagas SC

4-3-3

1 T. Riveros

70 R. Arace

4 M. Maitán

29 N. Henry

17 J. Paz

5 J. Colorado

14 F. Jaramillo

20 H. Diaz

8 C. Ramírez

7 F. Basante

10 L. González

Coach · Jesús Ortíz

Substitutes

11 · B. Urueña

19 · A. Romero

6 · A. Romero

77 · L. Rodríguez

21 · A. Rodas

2 · R. Rincones

3 · F. Queiroz

35 · S. Natera

33 · E. Lima

31 · D. Fuentes

38 · S. Asibe

27 · E. Farías

Our number · puerto cabello winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market55%

Us51%

~~Market~~55%

We make Puerto Cabello a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puerto Cabello v Monagas SC~~1.54 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 17~~3 v 7

~~The market · Puerto Cabello win~~55% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Puerto Cabello win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puerto Cabello win	51%	55%	−4
Draw	29%	25%	+4
Monagas SC win	20%	20%	0
Over 2.5 goals	44%	52%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	32%	−9
Puerto Cabello or draw	80%	80%	0
Puerto Cabello clean sheet	42%	–	–
Monagas SC clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.5 6.5 3.5 1 12.2 13.3 5.3 2 10.4 9.1 4.0 3 5.4 4.7 2.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puerto Cabello down, Monagas SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Primera División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 202 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puerto Cabello at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Monagas SC away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Puerto Cabello, 0.88 for Monagas SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MON 1–1 PUE · PUE 0–0 MON · PUE 3–2 MON · MON 1–2 PUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 3 Sept

PUERTO CABELLO

DDLDWW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

MONAGAS SC

WLWWDW3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	12	+19	31
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	12	+13	26
3	Puerto Cabello	12	+7	22
4	Carabobo FC	12	+5	21
5	Portuguesa FC	12	+2	18
6	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17
7	Monagas SC	12	0	17
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	12	−1	16
9	UCV	12	−2	15
10	Caracas FC	12	−2	14
11	Trujillanos FC	13	−6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	12	−10	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	−14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	−15	8