Puerto Cabello v Caracas FC prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Puerto CabelloDrawCaracas FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Puerto Cabello 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Puerto Cabello are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Puerto Cabello 47%, draw 31%, Caracas FC 22%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Puerto Cabello v Caracas FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Puerto Cabello win47%

Draw31%

Caracas FC win22%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura - Quadrangular · matchday 2

VenueComplejo Deportivo Socialista

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puerto Cabello

Caracas FC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Puerto Cabello	13	+7	23
8	Caracas FC	13	−1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · puerto cabello winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · updated 25 Oct 01:03 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Puerto Cabello a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puerto Cabello v Caracas FC~~1.37 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 17~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Puerto Cabello win

Published at 46%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puerto Cabello win	47%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Caracas FC win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Puerto Cabello or draw	78%	–	–
Puerto Cabello clean sheet	42%	–	–
Caracas FC clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.4 7.8 4.1 1 13.0 14.1 5.5 2 9.9 8.6 3.7 3 4.6 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puerto Cabello down, Caracas FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,478 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puerto Cabello at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Caracas FC away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Puerto Cabello, 0.87 for Caracas FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PUE 3–1 CAR · CAR 1–1 PUE · PUE 0–0 CAR · CAR 0–0 PUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 12 Sept

PUERTO CABELLO

LDWWDW0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–1

CARACAS FC

LLDWWL0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	13	+19	32
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	+13	27
3	Puerto Cabello	13	+7	23
4	Carabobo FC	13	+5	22
5	Portuguesa FC	13	+2	19
6	Monagas SC	13	0	18
7	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17
8	Caracas FC	13	−1	17
9	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	−1	17
10	UCV	13	−2	16
11	Trujillanos FC	13	−6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	13	−11	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	−14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	−15	8