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Portuguesa FC v Deportivo La Guaira

Portuguesa FC

0–0Full time

Deportivo La Guaira

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio General Jose Antonio Paez

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:30

Portuguesa FC 0–0 Deportivo La Guaira DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo La Guaira win~~37%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.707

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.769

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo La Guaira win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportivo La Guaira was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
1′KICK-OFF Portuguesa FC v Deportivo La Guaira
2′🟨 YELLOW · 3' F. Londono · Deportivo La Guaira
25′🟨 YELLOW · 3' F. Londono · Deportivo La Guaira
32′🟨 YELLOW · 3' F. Londono · Deportivo La Guaira
45′🟨 YELLOW · 3' F. Londono · Deportivo La Guaira
45′SECOND HALF Portuguesa FC 0–0 Deportivo La Guaira
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' L. Moreno Quero · Portuguesa FC
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Deportivo La Guaira · On: J. Castellanos · Off: M. Gonzalez
62′🟨 YELLOW · 63' M. Orihuela · Deportivo La Guaira
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Portuguesa FC · On: J. Soto · Off: A. Yepez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Portuguesa FC · On: J. Perez · Off: R. Rojas
67′🟨 YELLOW · 68' C. Varela · Deportivo La Guaira
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Deportivo La Guaira · On: A. Uribe · Off: F. Londono
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Deportivo La Guaira · On: M. Sulbaran · Off: J. Meza
75′🟨 YELLOW · 76' J. Perez · Portuguesa FC
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Deportivo La Guaira · On: J. Herrera · Off: J. Gonzalez
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Deportivo La Guaira · On: R. Ibarra · Off: J. Perdomo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Portuguesa FC · On: H. Garcia · Off: V. H. Navas Barrera
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Portuguesa FC · On: J. Martinez · Off: J. Canete
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' M. Sulbaran · Deportivo La Guaira
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' K. Zuniga · Portuguesa FC
95′SUBSTITUTION · 96' Portuguesa FC · On: A. Trujillo · Off: O. Lopez
FTFULL TIME Portuguesa FC 0–0 Deportivo La Guaira
FTPortuguesa FC 0–0 Deportivo La Guaira · Deportivo La Guaira win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Portuguesa FC win32%

Draw31%

Deportivo La Guaira win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 22:00

Venue · Estadio General Jose Antonio Paez

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Portuguesa FC

Formation not confirmed

22 J. Reyes

17 K. Zuniga

27 L. Moreno Quero

3 G. Aguirre

2 G. Benitez

13 V. H. Navas Barrera

18 C. Montana

26 A. Yepez

19 O. Lopez

9 J. Canete

7 R. Rojas

Coach · Leonardo Gonzalez

Substitutes

1 · S. Rodriguez

4 · N. Trejo

66 · C. Urpin

6 · A. Trujillo

70 · R. Morillo

8 · R. Toussaint

5 · J. Soto

14 · H. Garcia

20 · J. Perez

99 · J. Martinez

29 · W. Pena

23 · A. Polo

Deportivo La Guaira

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Varela

33 N. Hernandez

24 G. Ortiz

2 C. Rojas

39 M. Orihuela

15 M. Gonzalez

27 J. Correa

8 J. Perdomo

7 J. Meza

36 F. Londono

11 J. Gonzalez

Coach · Hector Bidoglio

Substitutes

12 · J. Sanchez

23 · J. Herrera

13 · R. Ibarra

28 · M. Villero

22 · M. Sulbaran

16 · L. Martinez

6 · C. Faya

10 · J. Castellanos

67 · G. Vargas

9 · A. Uribe

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Portuguesa FC

Formation not confirmed

22 J. Reyes

17 K. Zuniga

27 L. Moreno Quero

3 G. Aguirre

2 G. Benitez

13 V. H. Navas Barrera

18 C. Montana

26 A. Yepez

19 O. Lopez

9 J. Canete

7 R. Rojas

Coach · Leonardo Gonzalez

Substitutes

1 · S. Rodriguez

4 · N. Trejo

66 · C. Urpin

6 · A. Trujillo

70 · R. Morillo

8 · R. Toussaint

5 · J. Soto

14 · H. Garcia

20 · J. Perez

99 · J. Martinez

29 · W. Pena

23 · A. Polo

Deportivo La Guaira

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Varela

33 N. Hernandez

24 G. Ortiz

2 C. Rojas

39 M. Orihuela

15 M. Gonzalez

27 J. Correa

8 J. Perdomo

7 J. Meza

36 F. Londono

11 J. Gonzalez

Coach · Hector Bidoglio

Substitutes

12 · J. Sanchez

23 · J. Herrera

13 · R. Ibarra

28 · M. Villero

22 · M. Sulbaran

16 · L. Martinez

6 · C. Faya

10 · J. Castellanos

67 · G. Vargas

9 · A. Uribe

Our number · deportivo la guaira winPublished 10 Oct 22:04

37% The market41%

Us37%

~~Market~~41%

We make Deportivo La Guaira a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo la guaira win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portuguesa FC win	32%	30%	+2
Draw	31%	29%	+3
Deportivo La Guaira win	37%	41%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	48%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−7
Portuguesa FC or draw	63%	59%	+5
Portuguesa FC clean sheet	30%	–	–
Deportivo La Guaira clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.6%

0123450 11.7 10.3 7.1 2.9 1 9.4 14.6 7.8 3.2 2 6.1 7.2 4.3 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portuguesa FC down, Deportivo La Guaira across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,462 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 2.46 goals a meeting; 6 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Portuguesa FC at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo La Guaira away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Portuguesa FC, 1.20 for Deportivo La Guaira. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.46

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 13

~~Both scored~~8 of 13

~~Last meetings~~POR 0–2 DEP · DEP 1–1 POR · DEP 0–0 POR · DEP 3–1 POR

Form · last six in Primera División

PORTUGUESA FC

DDDDWL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA

LDWLLL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	30	+20	61
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	29	+15	55
3	Carabobo FC	31	+19	51
4	Deportivo La Guaira	30	+14	50
5	Puerto Cabello	31	+8	46
6	Portuguesa FC	30	+9	45
7	UCV	30	+5	44
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	30	−3	39
9	Caracas FC	24	−7	26
10	Monagas SC	24	−9	25
11	Zamora FC	24	−11	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	24	−16	25
13	Trujillanos FC	24	−23	15
14	Anzoátegui FC	23	−21	14