Portuguesa FC v Carabobo FC prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Portuguesa FCDrawCarabobo FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Carabobo FC 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Carabobo FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Portuguesa FC 28%, draw 34%, Carabobo FC 38%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Portuguesa FC v Carabobo FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Portuguesa FC win28%

Draw34%

Carabobo FC win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura - Quadrangular · matchday 1

VenueEstadio General Jose Antonio Paez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portuguesa FC

Carabobo FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa Venezuela

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Carabobo FC	13	+5	22
5	Portuguesa FC	13	+2	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · carabobo fc winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

38% The market45%

Us38%

~~Market~~45%

We make Carabobo FC a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Portuguesa FC v Carabobo FC~~0.92 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 22~~5 v 4

~~The market · Carabobo FC win~~45% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Carabobo FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portuguesa FC win	28%	26%	+2
Draw	34%	29%	+5
Carabobo FC win	38%	45%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	33%	47%	−14
Both teams to score	41%	51%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	61%	71%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	15%	27%	−12
Portuguesa FC or draw	62%	55%	+7
Portuguesa FC clean sheet	34%	–	–
Carabobo FC clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.1%

0123450 15.1 13.0 8.0 3.0 1 10.6 14.8 7.3 2.7 2 5.6 6.1 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portuguesa FC down, Carabobo FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Portuguesa FC at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Carabobo FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Portuguesa FC, 1.10 for Carabobo FC. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~POR 1–0 CAR · CAR 0–0 POR · CAR 5–0 POR · POR 1–1 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept

PORTUGUESA FC

DDWLDD1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0

CARABOBO FC

WWWDWD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	13	+19	32
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	+13	27
3	Puerto Cabello	13	+7	23
4	Carabobo FC	13	+5	22
5	Portuguesa FC	13	+2	19
6	Monagas SC	13	0	18
7	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17
8	Caracas FC	13	−1	17
9	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	−1	17
10	UCV	13	−2	16
11	Trujillanos FC	13	−6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	13	−11	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	−14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	−15	8