Monagas SC v Puerto Cabello prediction · Primera División

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Puerto Cabello just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Monagas SC 34%, draw 30%, Puerto Cabello 36%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Monagas SC v Puerto CabelloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Monagas SC win34%

Draw30%

Puerto Cabello win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:30

RoundClausura - Quadrangular · matchday 1

VenueMonumental de Maturín

Line-ups

Monagas SC

4-2-3-1

Puerto Cabello

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monagas SC

Puerto Cabello

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa Venezuela

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa Venezuela

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Puerto Cabello	13	+7	23
6	Monagas SC	13	0	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Monagas SC

4-2-3-1

12 T. Riveros

30 K. De La Hoz

4 M. Maitán

29 N. Henry

17 J. Paz

5 J. Colorado

6 A. Romero

70 R. Arace

10 L. González

20 H. Diaz

7 F. Basante

Coach · Jesús Ortíz

Substitutes

16 · E. Carrión

11 · B. Urueña

38 · S. Asibe

27 · E. Farías

31 · D. Fuentes

14 · F. Jaramillo

33 · E. Lima

35 · S. Natera

3 · F. Queiroz

2 · R. Rincones

21 · A. Rodas

19 · A. Romero

Puerto Cabello

4-3-3

55 L. Romero

29 J. Vargas

26 J. Ramos

14 G. Bortagaray

16 R. Rosales

77 M. Isah

15 D. Saggiomo

24 H. Contreras

70 R. Flores

28 D. Osorio

19 J. Castillo

Coach · E. Saragó

Substitutes

41 · L. Cova

1 · J. Graterol

6 · P. Lima

27 · Heiber Eduardo Linares Martínez

20 · J. Marchán

17 · J. Martínez

36 · Jose Mendoza

8 · J. Moreno

11 · E. Pernía

9 · A. Ponce

32 · Jesus Camacho

30 · L. Casiani

Our number · puerto cabello winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

36% The market42%

Us36%

~~Market~~42%

We make Puerto Cabello a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monagas SC v Puerto Cabello~~1.20 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 23~~6 v 3

~~The market · Puerto Cabello win~~42% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Puerto Cabello win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monagas SC win	34%	30%	+4
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Puerto Cabello win	36%	42%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	52%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	71%	75%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	32%	−9
Monagas SC or draw	64%	58%	+6
Monagas SC clean sheet	29%	–	–
Puerto Cabello clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 10.5 9.3 6.7 2.8 1 8.9 14.4 7.9 3.3 2 6.2 7.7 4.7 3 2.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monagas SC down, Puerto Cabello across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monagas SC at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Puerto Cabello away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Monagas SC, 1.25 for Puerto Cabello. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 22:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PUE 3–3 MON · MON 1–1 PUE · PUE 0–0 MON · PUE 3–2 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept

MONAGAS SC

LWWDWD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–3

PUERTO CABELLO

DLDWWD0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–3

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	13	+19	32
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	+13	27
3	Puerto Cabello	13	+7	23
4	Carabobo FC	13	+5	22
5	Portuguesa FC	13	+2	19
6	Monagas SC	13	0	18
7	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17
8	Caracas FC	13	−1	17
9	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	−1	17
10	UCV	13	−2	16
11	Trujillanos FC	13	−6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	13	−11	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	−14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	−15	8