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Monagas SC v Estudiantes de Merida FC

Monagas SC

2–1Full time

Estudiantes de Merida FC

Primera División · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

Monagas SC 2–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC MONAGAS SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monagas SC win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.533

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 52 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monagas SC win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Monagas SC was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
14′11′ and it is 1–0: F. Basante on the scoresheet for Monagas SC. 1–0 · 71–18–10
34′Monagas SC ahead on 24′ through F. Basante. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Monagas SC win: 44% at kick-off, 92% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Monagas SC win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Monagas SC win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Monagas SC win: 44% at kick-off, 92% now
38′Monagas SC ahead on 24′ through F. Basante. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Monagas SC win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Monagas SC win: 44% at kick-off, 92% now
38′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: J. Hernandez · Off: C. Magallan
40′🟨 YELLOW · 41' F. Jaramillo · Monagas SC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Monagas SC win: 44% at kick-off, 93% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 11' Monagas SC 2–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC · F. Basante (assist H. Diaz)
45′⚽ GOAL · 24' Monagas SC 2–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC · F. Basante (assist E. Carrion)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: J. Hernandez · Off: C. Magallan
45′🟨 YELLOW · 41' F. Jaramillo · Monagas SC
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' E. Carrion · Monagas SC
45′SECOND HALF Monagas SC 2–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' E. Carrion · Monagas SC
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' K. De La Hoz · Monagas SC
49′⚽ GOAL · 11' Monagas SC 2–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC · F. Basante (assist H. Diaz)
49′⚽ GOAL · 24' Monagas SC 2–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC · F. Basante (assist E. Carrion)
49′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: J. Hernandez · Off: C. Magallan
49′🟨 YELLOW · 41' F. Jaramillo · Monagas SC
49′🟨 YELLOW · 47' E. Carrion · Monagas SC
54′⚽ GOAL · 11' Monagas SC 2–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC · F. Basante (assist H. Diaz)
54′⚽ GOAL · 24' Monagas SC 2–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC · F. Basante (assist E. Carrion)
54′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: J. Hernandez · Off: C. Magallan
54′🟨 YELLOW · 41' F. Jaramillo · Monagas SC
54′🟨 YELLOW · 47' E. Carrion · Monagas SC
54′🟨 YELLOW · 49' K. De La Hoz · Monagas SC
56′⚽ GOAL · 11' Monagas SC 2–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC · F. Basante (assist H. Diaz)
56′⚽ GOAL · 24' Monagas SC 2–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC · F. Basante (assist E. Carrion)
56′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: J. Hernandez · Off: C. Magallan
56′🟨 YELLOW · 41' F. Jaramillo · Monagas SC
56′🟨 YELLOW · 47' E. Carrion · Monagas SC
56′🟨 YELLOW · 49' K. De La Hoz · Monagas SC
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Monagas SC · On: L. Rodriguez · Off: E. Carrion
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Monagas SC · On: S. Asibe · Off: A. Romero
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Monagas SC 2–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC · F. Basante
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Monagas SC 2–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC · J. Lobo
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' H. Acosta · Estudiantes de Merida FC
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' F. Basante · Monagas SC
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Monagas SC · On: S. Natera · Off: H. Diaz
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Monagas SC · On: S. Natera · Off: H. Diaz
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Monagas SC · On: A. Romero · Off: L. Gonzalez
72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' C. Rodriguez · Estudiantes de Merida FC
74′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: A. Montero · Off: J. Lobo
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: R. Chacon · Off: C. Rodriguez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Monagas SC · On: A. Rodas · Off: F. Basante
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: Y. Lacruz · Off: D. Matheus
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: M. Maldonado · Off: J. A. Montilla Maldonado
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' L. Caicedo · Estudiantes de Merida FC
93′🟨 YELLOW · 92' A. Romero · Monagas SC
FTFULL TIME Monagas SC 2–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC
FTMonagas SC 2–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC · Monagas SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Monagas SC win44%

Draw29%

Estudiantes de Merida FC win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 23:00

Line-ups

Monagas SC

Estudiantes de Merida FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Monagas SC

Estudiantes de Merida FC

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	30	−3	39
10	Monagas SC	24	−9	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Monagas SC

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Riveros

30 K. De La Hoz

4 M. Maitan

29 N. Henry

17 J. Paz

14 F. Jaramillo

6 A. Romero

16 E. Carrion

20 H. Diaz

10 L. Gonzalez

7 F. Basante

Coach · Jesus Ortiz

Substitutes

33 · E. Lima

3 · F. Queiroz

2 · R. Rincones

31 · D. Fuentes

35 · S. Natera

21 · A. Rodas

38 · S. Asibe

19 · A. Romero

27 · E. Farias

11 · B. Uruena

8 · C. Ramirez

77 · L. Rodriguez

Estudiantes de Merida FC

Formation not confirmed

12 E. Roberts

25 H. Acosta

44 L. Caicedo

4 C. Rodriguez

20 J. A. Montilla Maldonado

16 J. Lobo

5 W. S. Ramirez Holguin

15 C. Rivas

14 R. Ivey

99 D. Matheus

17 C. Magallan

Coach · Jesus Gomez

Substitutes

1 · T. Rojas

31 · G. Montes

13 · M. Maldonado

10 · A. Pena

11 · A. Montero

33 · Mejias Diego

23 · Y. Lacruz

9 · J. Hernandez

36 · R. Chacon

Our number · monagas sc winPublished 11 Oct 23:01

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Monagas SC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · monagas sc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. The market has gone from 46% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monagas SC win	44%	40%	+3
Draw	29%	28%	0
Estudiantes de Merida FC win	28%	31%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	30%	−2
Monagas SC or draw	72%	69%	+3
Monagas SC clean sheet	31%	–	–
Estudiantes de Merida FC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 8.6 6.6 4.7 1 8.9 13.5 7.0 2.7 2 7.8 9.0 5.2 2.1 3 3.9 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monagas SC down, Estudiantes de Merida FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,465 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.23 goals a meeting; 7 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Monagas SC at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Estudiantes de Merida FC away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Monagas SC, 1.17 for Estudiantes de Merida FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.23

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 13

~~Both scored~~10 of 13

~~Last meetings~~EST 3–2 MON · MON 1–0 EST · EST 2–0 MON · MON 2–3 EST

Form · last six in Primera División

MONAGAS SC

LWLWWD1–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC

WDLWLD2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	31	+24	64
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	30	+18	58
3	Carabobo FC	31	+19	51
4	Deportivo La Guaira	31	+14	51
5	Portuguesa FC	31	+9	46
6	Puerto Cabello	31	+8	46
7	UCV	31	+2	44
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	30	−3	39
9	Caracas FC	24	−7	26
10	Monagas SC	24	−9	25
11	Zamora FC	24	−11	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	25	−20	25
13	Trujillanos FC	24	−23	15
14	Anzoátegui FC	23	−21	14