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Metropolitanos FC v Rayo Zuliano

Metropolitanos FC

4–0Full time

Rayo Zuliano

Primera División · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 03:00

Metropolitanos FC 4–0 Rayo Zuliano METROPOLITANOS FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metropolitanos FC win~~62%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.217

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.161

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metropolitanos FC win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Metropolitanos FC 62% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–20–17
1′KICK-OFF Metropolitanos FC v Rayo Zuliano
2′Little has changed for our model: Metropolitanos FC 62% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–20–17
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Metropolitanos FC 1–0 Rayo Zuliano · S. Garces
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Metropolitanos FC 2–0 Rayo Zuliano · K. Ortiz
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' J. Velez · Rayo Zuliano
45′HALF-TIME Metropolitanos FC 2–0 Rayo Zuliano
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rayo Zuliano · On: C. Romero · Off: J. Barrios
46′SECOND HALF Metropolitanos FC 2–0 Rayo Zuliano
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Metropolitanos FC · On: R. Sangiovani · Off: R. Garces
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Metropolitanos FC 3–0 Rayo Zuliano · K. Ortiz
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rayo Zuliano · On: J. Julio · Off: J. Moran
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rayo Zuliano · On: C. Maldonado · Off: J. Arias
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rayo Zuliano · On: K. Pacheco · Off: J. Velez
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Metropolitanos FC · On: M. Diaz · Off: Miku
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Metropolitanos FC · On: B. Alcocer · Off: S. Ramirez
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Metropolitanos FC · On: J. Riasco · Off: K. Ortiz
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Metropolitanos FC 3–1 Rayo Zuliano · K. Pacheco
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Metropolitanos FC · On: J. Vargas · Off: R. Figueroa
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rayo Zuliano · On: E. Gomez · Off: J. Ochoa
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Metropolitanos FC 4–0 Rayo Zuliano · J. Riasco
FTFULL TIME Metropolitanos FC 4–0 Rayo Zuliano
FTMetropolitanos FC 4–0 Rayo Zuliano · Metropolitanos FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Metropolitanos FC win62%

Draw22%

Rayo Zuliano win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Metropolitanos FC

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Yustiz

3 D. Rivillo

4 A. Ferro

2 F. Manenti

17 E. Valderrey

21 R. Garces

15 D. Zalzman

88 R. Figueroa

7 Miku

11 S. Ramirez

9 K. Ortiz

Coach · Francesco Stifano

Substitutes

25 · A. Vazquez

32 · C. Camarillo

6 · Y. Caricote

24 · A. Jaimes

20 · R. Acosta

5 · R. Sangiovani

13 · J. Gimenez

16 · J. Riasco

18 · J. Vargas

29 · B. Alcocer

99 · A. Bianciotti

23 · M. Diaz

Rayo Zuliano

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Corredor

3 J. Marquez

79 S. Garces

22 S. Orejuela

32 J. Moran

26 J. Gomez

8 J. Velez

99 J. Barrios

10 J. Arias

7 D. A. Vasquez Ferrer

23 J. Ochoa

Coach · Johannys Garcia

Substitutes

1 · J. Camacaro

20 · P. Chacon

25 · J. Julio

70 · J. A. Colina Bracho

34 · F. Diaz

5 · J. Martinez

11 · C. Romero

36 · A. Jimenez

24 · J. Sanchez

15 · E. Gomez

18 · C. Maldonado

90 · K. Pacheco

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Metropolitanos FC

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Yustiz

3 D. Rivillo

4 A. Ferro

2 F. Manenti

17 E. Valderrey

21 R. Garces

15 D. Zalzman

88 R. Figueroa

7 Miku

11 S. Ramirez

9 K. Ortiz

Coach · Francesco Stifano

Substitutes

25 · A. Vazquez

32 · C. Camarillo

6 · Y. Caricote

24 · A. Jaimes

20 · R. Acosta

5 · R. Sangiovani

13 · J. Gimenez

16 · J. Riasco

18 · J. Vargas

29 · B. Alcocer

99 · A. Bianciotti

23 · M. Diaz

Rayo Zuliano

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Corredor

3 J. Marquez

79 S. Garces

22 S. Orejuela

32 J. Moran

26 J. Gomez

8 J. Velez

99 J. Barrios

10 J. Arias

7 D. A. Vasquez Ferrer

23 J. Ochoa

Coach · Johannys Garcia

Substitutes

1 · J. Camacaro

20 · P. Chacon

25 · J. Julio

70 · J. A. Colina Bracho

34 · F. Diaz

5 · J. Martinez

11 · C. Romero

36 · A. Jimenez

24 · J. Sanchez

15 · E. Gomez

18 · C. Maldonado

90 · K. Pacheco

Our number · metropolitanos fc winPublished 11 Oct 00:31

62% The market67%

Us62%

~~Market~~67%

We make Metropolitanos FC a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · metropolitanos fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metropolitanos FC win	62%	67%	−5
Draw	22%	20%	+2
Rayo Zuliano win	16%	12%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	59%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	51%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	39%	37%	+1
Metropolitanos FC or draw	84%	88%	−3
Metropolitanos FC clean sheet	37%	–	–
Rayo Zuliano clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 5.6 3.3 2.2 1 8.2 10.3 4.6 2 9.8 9.7 4.9 3 7.0 6.9 3.5 4 3.8 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metropolitanos FC down, Rayo Zuliano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,462 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metropolitanos FC at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rayo Zuliano away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Metropolitanos FC, 1.00 for Rayo Zuliano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~RAY 0–1 MET · RAY 0–1 MET · MET 4–2 RAY · RAY 2–2 MET

Form · last six in Primera División

METROPOLITANOS FC

DWWWWW2–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1

RAYO ZULIANO

LWLDWD1–4 · 4–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	30	+20	61
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	29	+15	55
3	Carabobo FC	31	+19	51
4	Deportivo La Guaira	30	+14	50
5	Puerto Cabello	31	+8	46
6	Portuguesa FC	30	+9	45
7	UCV	30	+5	44
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	30	−3	39
9	Caracas FC	24	−7	26
10	Monagas SC	24	−9	25
11	Zamora FC	24	−11	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	24	−16	25
13	Trujillanos FC	24	−23	15
14	Anzoátegui FC	23	−21	14