Metropolitanos FC v Portuguesa FC prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Metropolitanos FCDrawPortuguesa FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Metropolitanos FC 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metropolitanos FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Metropolitanos FC 50%, draw 28%, Portuguesa FC 22%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Metropolitanos FC v Portuguesa FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Metropolitanos FC win50%

Draw28%

Portuguesa FC win22%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 23:30

RoundClausura - Quadrangular · matchday 2

VenueEstadio Olimpico de la UCV

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metropolitanos FC

Portuguesa FC

6Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa Venezuela

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metropolitanos fc winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Metropolitanos FC a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metropolitanos FC v Portuguesa FC~~1.58 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 32 v 19~~1 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metropolitanos FC win	50%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Portuguesa FC win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Metropolitanos FC or draw	78%	–	–
Metropolitanos FC clean sheet	38%	–	–
Portuguesa FC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.5 6.2 3.7 1 11.0 13.3 5.7 2 9.7 9.3 4.5 3 5.2 4.9 2.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metropolitanos FC down, Portuguesa FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metropolitanos FC at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Portuguesa FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Metropolitanos FC, 0.96 for Portuguesa FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~POR 2–2 MET · MET 3–2 POR · MET 5–1 POR · POR 2–1 MET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 5 Sept

METROPOLITANOS FC

WWWWWD1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 2–2

PORTUGUESA FC

DDWLDD1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	13	+19	32
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	+13	27
3	Puerto Cabello	13	+7	23
4	Carabobo FC	13	+5	22
5	Portuguesa FC	13	+2	19
6	Monagas SC	13	0	18
7	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17
8	Caracas FC	13	−1	17
9	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	−1	17
10	UCV	13	−2	16
11	Trujillanos FC	13	−6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	13	−11	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	−14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	−15	8