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Estudiantes de Merida FC v Metropolitanos FC

Estudiantes de Merida FC

2–2Full time

Metropolitanos FC

Primera División · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:00

Estudiantes de Merida FC 2–2 Metropolitanos FC METROPOLITANOS FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metropolitanos FC win~~39%

~~The market said~~15%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.766

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.882

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metropolitanos FC win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Metropolitanos FC 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 32–29–39
1′KICK-OFF Estudiantes de Merida FC v Metropolitanos FC
3′We said Metropolitanos FC at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 14–18–68
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Estudiantes de Merida FC 0–1 Metropolitanos FC
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Metropolitanos FC win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
4′Metropolitanos FC find the net on 3′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–18–68
8′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Cristopher Rodriguez · Estudiantes de Merida FC
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Metropolitanos FC win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' yolfran caricote · Metropolitanos FC
26′We said Metropolitanos FC at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 11–20–70
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–70
45′SECOND HALF Estudiantes de Merida FC 0–1 Metropolitanos FC
47′HALF-TIME Estudiantes de Merida FC 0–1 Metropolitanos FC
54′We said Metropolitanos FC at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Estudiantes de Merida FC 1–1 Metropolitanos FC
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Metropolitanos FC win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Metropolitanos FC win 29%)
57′An own goal by Metropolitanos FC's yolfran caricote on 56′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–47–28
59′We said Metropolitanos FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 24–49–27
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: Angelo Pena · Off: Christian Rivas
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Metropolitanos FC · On: Brayan Jesus·Alcocer Narvaez · Off: Jailerth Navarro
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Metropolitanos FC · On: Jesús Vargas · Off: Saimon Ramirez
65′We said Metropolitanos FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 21–55–24
67′We said Metropolitanos FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 77–19–4
67′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 77–19–4
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Estudiantes de Merida FC 2–1 Metropolitanos FC
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Metropolitanos FC win: 39% at kick-off, 4% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Estudiantes de Merida FC win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
70′67′: Jesus Hernandez on the scoresheet for Estudiantes de Merida FC, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–3
71′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Jesus Hernandez · Estudiantes de Merida FC
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Metropolitanos FC · On: Richard Figueroa · Off: Kavier Ortiz
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Metropolitanos FC · On: Rafael Acosta · Off: Marlon Rodriguez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Metropolitanos FC · On: Jose Alexander Riasco Brizuela · Off: Rafael Sangiovani
75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Rafael Acosta · Metropolitanos FC
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Jose Alexander Riasco Brizuela · Metropolitanos FC
83′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Metropolitanos FC
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: Jhon Moreno · Off: Jesus Hernandez
84′Metropolitanos FC are down to ten from 81′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 92–8–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: Johandry Lacruz · Off: Darwin Matheus
87′We said Metropolitanos FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–2 · 6–88–6
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Estudiantes de Merida FC 2–2 Metropolitanos FC
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Estudiantes de Merida FC win 6%)
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 5–89–6
90′Metropolitanos FC level it on 88′ through Angel Jaimes. 2–2. 2–2 · 4–92–4
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: Luis Gabriel Vera Uzcategui · Off: Romeesh Ivey Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Estudiantes de Merida FC · On: Geovan Montes · Off: Luis Caicedo Corrected
FTFULL TIME Estudiantes de Merida FC 2–2 Metropolitanos FC
FTEstudiantes de Merida FC 2–2 Metropolitanos FC · Metropolitanos FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metropolitanos FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estudiantes de Merida FC 32%, draw 29%, Metropolitanos FC 39%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Estudiantes de Merida FC v Metropolitanos FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Estudiantes de Merida FC win32%

Draw29%

Metropolitanos FC win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 20:30

RoundClausura · matchday 13

Line-ups

Estudiantes de Merida FC

4-3-3

Metropolitanos FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estudiantes de Merida FC

Metropolitanos FC

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Estudiantes de Merida FC

4-3-3

12 E. Roberts

25 H. Acosta

44 L. Caicedo

4 C. Rodríguez

13 M. Maldonado

15 C. Rivas

5 W. Ramírez

16 J. Lobo

14 R. Ivey

9 J. Hernández

99 D. Matheus

Coach · Jesús Gómez

Substitutes

77 · Cristian castillo

7 · E. Albarrán

36 · R. Chacón

23 · Y. Lacruz

33 · D. Mejías

11 · A. Montero

31 · G. Montes

24 · J. Moreno

10 · Á. Peña

1 · T. Rojas

37 · L. Vera

88 · Gonzalo Sarcos

Metropolitanos FC

4-2-3-1

25 A. Vazquez

24 A. Jaimes

2 F. Manenti

6 Y. Caricote

19 I. Ramírez

8 George Ayine

5 R. Sangiovani

23 Marlon Rodriguez

30 J. Navarro

11 S. Ramírez

9 K. Ortiz

Coach · F. Stifano

Substitutes

18 · J. Vargas

16 · J. Riasco

22 · J. Lara

21 · R. Garcés

88 · R. Figueroa

32 · C. Camarillo

99 · A. Bianciotti

29 · B. Alcócer

20 · Rafael Eduardo Acosta Cammarota

Our number · metropolitanos fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market15%

Us39%

~~Market~~15%

We make Metropolitanos FC a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 15%. We are 24 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estudiantes de Merida FC v Metropolitanos FC~~1.26 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 31~~8 v 1

~~The market · Metropolitanos FC win~~15% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Metropolitanos FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 15% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estudiantes de Merida FC win	32%	57%	−25
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Metropolitanos FC win	39%	15%	+24
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	55%	50%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	31%	−3
Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw	61%	85%	−24
Estudiantes de Merida FC clean sheet	25%	–	–
Metropolitanos FC clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 8.5 8.3 6.9 3.3 1 7.2 13.5 8.5 4.1 2 5.5 7.6 5.4 2.6 3 2.3 3.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estudiantes de Merida FC down, Metropolitanos FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Primera División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 202 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estudiantes de Merida FC at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Metropolitanos FC away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Estudiantes de Merida FC, 1.42 for Metropolitanos FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EST 0–1 MET · MET 2–0 EST · MET 2–0 EST · MET 1–0 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 3 Sept

ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC

DLWLDL1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

METROPOLITANOS FC

WWWWWW4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 4–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	12	+19	31
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	12	+13	26
3	Puerto Cabello	12	+7	22
4	Carabobo FC	12	+5	21
5	Portuguesa FC	12	+2	18
6	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17
7	Monagas SC	12	0	17
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	12	−1	16
9	UCV	12	−2	15
10	Caracas FC	12	−2	14
11	Trujillanos FC	13	−6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	12	−10	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	−14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	−15	8