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Deportivo Tachira FC v UCV

Deportivo Tachira FC

4–1Full time

UCV

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Deportivo Tachira FC 4–1 UCV DEPORTIVO TACHIRA FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Tachira FC win~~54%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.319

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.272

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Tachira FC win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Tachira FC 54% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–20
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Tachira FC v UCV
2′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Tachira FC 54% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
3′🟨 YELLOW · 1' A. Recoba · Deportivo Tachira FC
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' G. Mottes · UCV
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Deportivo Tachira FC 1–0 UCV · V. Adamo
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Deportivo Tachira FC 1–1 UCV · D. De Sousa
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Deportivo Tachira FC 2–1 UCV · G. Fratta
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Deportivo Tachira FC 2–1 UCV · D. De Sousa
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' G. Fratta · Deportivo Tachira FC
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' S. Sosa · UCV
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Tachira FC 1–1 UCV
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Tachira FC 1–1 UCV
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Deportivo Tachira FC 2–1 UCV · L. Zuniga
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Deportivo Tachira FC 3–1 UCV · V. Adamo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Deportivo Tachira FC · On: O. Hernandez · Off: B. Palmezano
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Deportivo Tachira FC · On: H. Ramirez · Off: A. Woiski
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Deportivo Tachira FC · On: A. Penaranda · Off: L. Zuniga
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' UCV · On: J. Araujo · Off: S. Sosa
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' UCV · On: J. Alegria · Off: Y. Cumana
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Deportivo Tachira FC · On: C. Calzadilla · Off: F. Provenzano
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' UCV · On: J. Colmenarez · Off: S. J. Pabon Delgao
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Deportivo Tachira FC · On: R. Pollero · Off: V. Adamo
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' E. Mosquera · UCV
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' F. Sole · UCV
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' UCV · On: K. Guzman · Off: M. Ruiz
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Deportivo Tachira FC 4–1 UCV · R. Pollero
FTDeportivo Tachira FC 4–1 UCV · Deportivo Tachira FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Deportivo Tachira FC win54%

Draw27%

UCV win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 23:00

Venue · Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Deportivo Tachira FC

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Araque

45 F. Provenzano

4 G. Fratta

13 P. Camacho

3 L. Lusnig

10 C. Sosa

24 J. Caraballo

14 B. Palmezano

27 L. Zuniga

21 V. Adamo

11 A. Woiski

Coach · Alvaro Recoba

Substitutes

30 · E. Vargas

44 · E. Tamiche

20 · C. Calzadilla

41 · W. Wilches

23 · O. Hernandez

38 · G. Lozano

31 · C. Mendez

7 · A. Penaranda

9 · R. Pollero

70 · H. Ramirez

37 · J. D. Duarte Arias

19 · A. Rondon

UCV

Formation not confirmed

22 R. Romo

3 S. J. Pabon Delgao

6 G. Mottes

25 J. S. Hernandez Ochoa

28 M. Ruiz

5 F. Sole

24 Y. Cumana

27 D. Carrillo

7 E. Mosquera

10 S. Sosa

16 D. De Sousa

Coach · Ignacio Sasso Pacheco Daniel

Substitutes

12 · C. Gonzalez

1 · G. Schiavone

4 · W. Velasquez

13 · E. Peraza

48 · D. Pereira

34 · K. Guzman

42 · J. Araujo

9 · J. Alegria

18 · R. Sarli

44 · J. Colmenarez

45 · I. Deyan

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Tachira FC

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Araque

45 F. Provenzano

4 G. Fratta

13 P. Camacho

3 L. Lusnig

10 C. Sosa

24 J. Caraballo

14 B. Palmezano

27 L. Zuniga

21 V. Adamo

11 A. Woiski

Coach · Alvaro Recoba

Substitutes

30 · E. Vargas

44 · E. Tamiche

20 · C. Calzadilla

41 · W. Wilches

23 · O. Hernandez

38 · G. Lozano

31 · C. Mendez

7 · A. Penaranda

9 · R. Pollero

70 · H. Ramirez

37 · J. D. Duarte Arias

19 · A. Rondon

UCV

Formation not confirmed

22 R. Romo

3 S. J. Pabon Delgao

6 G. Mottes

25 J. S. Hernandez Ochoa

28 M. Ruiz

5 F. Sole

24 Y. Cumana

27 D. Carrillo

7 E. Mosquera

10 S. Sosa

16 D. De Sousa

Coach · Ignacio Sasso Pacheco Daniel

Substitutes

12 · C. Gonzalez

1 · G. Schiavone

4 · W. Velasquez

13 · E. Peraza

48 · D. Pereira

34 · K. Guzman

42 · J. Araujo

9 · J. Alegria

18 · R. Sarli

44 · J. Colmenarez

45 · I. Deyan

Our number · deportivo tachira fc winPublished 10 Oct 22:52

54% The market58%

Us54%

~~Market~~58%

We make Deportivo Tachira FC a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo tachira fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Tachira FC win	54%	58%	−4
Draw	27%	24%	+2
UCV win	19%	18%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	53%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	32%	−5
Deportivo Tachira FC or draw	81%	82%	−1
Deportivo Tachira FC clean sheet	40%	–	–
UCV clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.7 5.3 3.1 1 10.8 12.6 5.3 2 10.3 9.5 4.5 3 5.9 5.4 2.5 4 2.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Tachira FC down, UCV across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,462 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.2% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Tachira FC at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). UCV away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Deportivo Tachira FC, 0.93 for UCV. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UCV 1–1 DEP · UCV 1–2 DEP · UCV 1–0 DEP · DEP 1–0 UCV

Form · last six in Primera División

DEPORTIVO TACHIRA FC

DWWLDW0–0 · 5–2 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 4–2

UCV

WDDWWD4–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	30	+20	61
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	29	+15	55
3	Carabobo FC	31	+19	51
4	Deportivo La Guaira	30	+14	50
5	Puerto Cabello	31	+8	46
6	Portuguesa FC	30	+9	45
7	UCV	30	+5	44
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	30	−3	39
9	Caracas FC	24	−7	26
10	Monagas SC	24	−9	25
11	Zamora FC	24	−11	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	24	−16	25
13	Trujillanos FC	24	−23	15
14	Anzoátegui FC	23	−21	14