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Deportivo La Guaira v Trujillanos FC

Deportivo La Guaira

1–2Full time

Trujillanos FC

Primera División · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

Deportivo La Guaira 1–2 Trujillanos FC DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo La Guaira win~~73%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.396

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.113

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo La Guaira win at 73%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo La Guaira 73% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–19–9
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo La Guaira v Trujillanos FC
42′Juan Castellanos scores for Deportivo La Guaira on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–2
42′⚽ GOAL · 14' Deportivo La Guaira 1–0 Trujillanos FC · Juan Castellanos (penalty)
42′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Trujillanos FC · On: Joantony Carmona · Off: Agustin araujo
42′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Ezequiel Gnemmi · Trujillanos FC
42′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Guillermo Ortíz · Deportivo La Guaira
42′PENALTY MISSED · 32' Franklin González · Trujillanos FC
42′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Deportivo La Guaira · On: Maike Villero · Off: Guillermo Ortíz
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Deportivo La Guaira win: 73% at kick-off, 89% now
44′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo La Guaira 1–0 Trujillanos FC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo La Guaira · On: Carlos Faya · Off: Miguel Eduardo Gonzalez Acosta
49′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–35–11
49′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 54–35–11
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Deportivo La Guaira 1–1 Trujillanos FC
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Deportivo La Guaira win: 73% at kick-off, 54% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Deportivo La Guaira win: 73% at kick-off, 53% now
51′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
51′HALF-TIME Deportivo La Guaira 1–0 Trujillanos FC
51′GOAL DISALLOWED · 51' Trujillanos FC
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Deportivo La Guaira win: 73% at kick-off, 90% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Trujillanos FC · On: Giordani Parra · Off: David Linarez
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Trujillanos FC · On: Jose Mendez · Off: Abreu Enderson
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Deportivo La Guaira · On: juan herrera · Off: Jose Ali Meza
74′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Mayker González · Trujillanos FC
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Deportivo La Guaira win: 73% at kick-off, 93% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Trujillanos FC · On: Leomar Mosquera · Off: Mayker González
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Trujillanos FC · On: Carlos Gil · Off: Franklin González
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Juan Castellanos · Deportivo La Guaira
81′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
81′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–76–5
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Deportivo La Guaira 1–1 Trujillanos FC
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Deportivo La Guaira win: 73% at kick-off, 19% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Deportivo La Guaira win 19%)
84′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–83–4
85′81′: Manuel Alejandro Sulbarán Solano puts it into the Deportivo La Guaira net, and it is 1–1. 1–1 · 13–84–3
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Deportivo La Guaira win: 73% at kick-off, 13% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Deportivo La Guaira · On: Juan Luis Perdomo · Off: Juan Castellanos
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo La Guaira · On: Anthony Uribe · Off: Flabian Londono Bedoya
87′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Deportivo La Guaira 1–2 Trujillanos FC
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Deportivo La Guaira win: 73% at kick-off, 1% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Trujillanos FC win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 10%)
88′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–9–91
90′Trujillanos FC ahead on 88′ through Christian Santos. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–93
95′1–2 at the end. Our 73% on Deportivo La Guaira misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Deportivo La Guaira 1–2 Trujillanos FC
FTDeportivo La Guaira 1–2 Trujillanos FC · Deportivo La Guaira win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo La Guaira are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo La Guaira 73%, draw 19%, Trujillanos FC 9%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo La Guaira v Trujillanos FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo La Guaira win73%

Draw19%

Trujillanos FC win9%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Olimpico de la UCV

Line-ups

Deportivo La Guaira

4-3-3

Trujillanos FC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo La Guaira

Trujillanos FC

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)

Last match: 14 Oct · Copa Venezuela

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Deportivo La Guaira	12	+5	17
11	Trujillanos FC	12	−7	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo La Guaira

4-3-3

1 C. Varela

16 L. Martinez

24 G. Ortiz

13 R. Ibarra

39 M. Orihuela

15 M. González

27 J. Correa

10 J. Castellanos

7 J. Meza

36 F. Londoño

22 M. Sulbarán

Coach · Mariano Rodriguez

Substitutes

28 · M. Villero

33 · N. Hernández

6 · C. Faya

23 · J. Herrera

67 · Gabriel Vargas

8 · J. Perdomo

12 · J. Sánchez

9 · A. Uribe

Trujillanos FC

4-4-2

1 V. Lopez

15 D. Rodríguez

4 E. Gnemmi

30 J. Granados

33 M. González

26 A. Araujo

22 K. González

10 E. Abreu

90 D. Linárez

7 C. Santos

9 F. González

Coach · M. Echeverría

Substitutes

11 · L. Mosquera

6 · J. González

35 · D. Nakache

12 · O. Garcia

8 · Jorge Eliézer Echeverría Montilva

36 · Joantony Carmona

25 · Jair andara

24 · C. Gil

18 · J. Mendez

60 · A. Canizalez

77 · G. Parra

Our number · deportivo la guaira winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:02 · locked at kick-off

73% The market59%

Us73%

~~Market~~59%

We make Deportivo La Guaira a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo La Guaira v Trujillanos FC~~2.30 – 0.66

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 11~~6 v 11

~~The market · Deportivo La Guaira win~~59% · ours 73%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo La Guaira win The market, margin stripped

Published at 72%, 73% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo La Guaira win	73%	59%	+14
Draw	19%	25%	−6
Trujillanos FC win	9%	16%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	56%	50%	+6
Both teams to score	43%	49%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	80%	74%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	34%	30%	+4
Deportivo La Guaira or draw	91%	84%	+7
Deportivo La Guaira clean sheet	52%	–	–
Trujillanos FC clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.5%

0123450 6.5 2.7 1 11.2 8.8 2.7 2 13.5 8.7 2.9 3 10.3 6.5 2.1 4 6.0 3.8 5 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo La Guaira down, Trujillanos FC across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,469 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.7% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo La Guaira at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Trujillanos FC away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.30 goals for Deportivo La Guaira, 0.66 for Trujillanos FC. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 20:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TRU 0–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 3 Sept

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA

DWLLLD1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 0–0

TRUJILLANOS FC

LLWLDL1–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	12	+19	31
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	12	+13	26
3	Puerto Cabello	12	+7	22
4	Carabobo FC	12	+5	21
5	Portuguesa FC	12	+2	18
6	Deportivo La Guaira	12	+5	17
7	Monagas SC	12	0	17
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	12	−1	16
9	UCV	12	−2	15
10	Caracas FC	12	−2	14
11	Trujillanos FC	12	−7	11
12	Rayo Zuliano	12	−10	11
13	Zamora FC	12	−14	8
14	Anzoátegui FC	12	−15	5