Deportivo La Guaira v Metropolitanos FC prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportivo La GuairaDrawMetropolitanos FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo La Guaira 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo La Guaira are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo La Guaira 44%, draw 29%, Metropolitanos FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo La Guaira v Metropolitanos FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo La Guaira win44%

Draw29%

Metropolitanos FC win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:30

RoundClausura - Quadrangular · matchday 1

VenueEstadio Olimpico de la UCV

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo La Guaira

Metropolitanos FC

4Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa Venezuela

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa Venezuela

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo la guaira winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Deportivo La Guaira a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo La Guaira v Metropolitanos FC~~1.47 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 32~~7 v 1

~~The market · Deportivo La Guaira win~~41% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo La Guaira win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo La Guaira win	44%	41%	+3
Draw	29%	32%	−3
Metropolitanos FC win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Deportivo La Guaira or draw	73%	73%	0
Deportivo La Guaira clean sheet	33%	–	–
Metropolitanos FC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 9.3 6.9 4.7 1 9.7 13.7 6.7 2.5 2 8.2 8.9 4.9 3 4.0 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo La Guaira down, Metropolitanos FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo La Guaira at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Metropolitanos FC away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Deportivo La Guaira, 1.11 for Metropolitanos FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–2 MET · MET 2–2 DEP · MET 1–3 DEP · DEP 4–1 MET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA

WLLLDL2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 1–2

METROPOLITANOS FC

WWWWWD1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	13	+19	32
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	+13	27
3	Puerto Cabello	13	+7	23
4	Carabobo FC	13	+5	22
5	Portuguesa FC	13	+2	19
6	Monagas SC	13	0	18
7	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17
8	Caracas FC	13	−1	17
9	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	−1	17
10	UCV	13	−2	16
11	Trujillanos FC	13	−6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	13	−11	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	−14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	−15	8