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Caracas FC v Zamora FC

Caracas FC

4–1Full time

Zamora FC

Primera División · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:00

Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC CARACAS FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Caracas FC win~~48%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.248

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 60 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Caracas FC win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Caracas FC was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–23
14′14′ and it is 2–0: J. De Santis on the scoresheet for Caracas FC. 2–0 · 93–5–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: M. Guevara · Off: S. Torrealba
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: A. Leon · Off: A. Flores
82′⚽ GOAL · 10' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · J. Quintero (assist Robert Hernandez)
82′⚽ GOAL · 14' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · J. De Santis
82′🟨 YELLOW · 18' F. Espinal · Zamora FC
82′⚽ GOAL · 31' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · A. Villarreal (assist A. Figueroa)
82′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Zamora FC · On: J. Mosquera · Off: B. Rodriguez
82′⚽ GOAL · 33' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · J. Quintero (assist Robert Hernandez)
82′⚽ GOAL · 41' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · S. Torrealba
82′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Caracas FC · On: C. Larotonda · Off: A. Figueroa
82′🟨 YELLOW · 56' J. Sinisterra · Zamora FC
82′🟨 YELLOW · 62' A. Flores · Zamora FC
82′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zamora FC · On: S. Gomez · Off: J. Exime
82′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zamora FC · On: H. Manrique · Off: E. Gallardo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Caracas FC · On: M. Covea · Off: W. Correa
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Caracas FC · On: J. Uribe · Off: Robert Hernandez
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Caracas FC · On: C. Vegas · Off: A. Villarreal
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: J. Flores · Off: F. Espinal
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: M. Guevara · Off: S. Torrealba
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: A. Leon · Off: A. Flores
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Caracas FC · On: S. Gonzalez · Off: J. De Santis
87′⚽ GOAL · 10' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · J. Quintero (assist Robert Hernandez)
87′⚽ GOAL · 14' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · J. De Santis
87′🟨 YELLOW · 18' F. Espinal · Zamora FC
87′⚽ GOAL · 31' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · A. Villarreal (assist A. Figueroa)
87′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Zamora FC · On: J. Mosquera · Off: B. Rodriguez
87′⚽ GOAL · 33' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · J. Quintero (assist Robert Hernandez)
87′⚽ GOAL · 41' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · S. Torrealba
87′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Caracas FC · On: C. Larotonda · Off: A. Figueroa
87′🟨 YELLOW · 56' J. Sinisterra · Zamora FC
87′🟨 YELLOW · 62' A. Flores · Zamora FC
87′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zamora FC · On: S. Gomez · Off: J. Exime
87′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zamora FC · On: H. Manrique · Off: E. Gallardo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Caracas FC · On: M. Covea · Off: W. Correa
87′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Caracas FC · On: J. Uribe · Off: Robert Hernandez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Caracas FC · On: C. Vegas · Off: A. Villarreal
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: J. Flores · Off: F. Espinal
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: M. Guevara · Off: S. Torrealba
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: A. Leon · Off: A. Flores
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Caracas FC · On: S. Gonzalez · Off: J. De Santis
88′⚽ GOAL · 10' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · J. Quintero (assist Robert Hernandez)
88′⚽ GOAL · 14' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · J. De Santis
88′🟨 YELLOW · 18' F. Espinal · Zamora FC
88′⚽ GOAL · 31' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · A. Villarreal (assist A. Figueroa)
88′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Zamora FC · On: J. Mosquera · Off: B. Rodriguez
88′⚽ GOAL · 33' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · J. Quintero (assist Robert Hernandez)
88′⚽ GOAL · 41' Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · S. Torrealba
88′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Caracas FC · On: C. Larotonda · Off: A. Figueroa
88′🟨 YELLOW · 56' J. Sinisterra · Zamora FC
88′🟨 YELLOW · 62' A. Flores · Zamora FC
88′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zamora FC · On: S. Gomez · Off: J. Exime
88′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zamora FC · On: H. Manrique · Off: E. Gallardo
88′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Caracas FC · On: M. Covea · Off: W. Correa
88′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Caracas FC · On: J. Uribe · Off: Robert Hernandez
88′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Caracas FC · On: C. Vegas · Off: A. Villarreal
88′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: J. Flores · Off: F. Espinal
88′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: M. Guevara · Off: S. Torrealba
88′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Zamora FC · On: A. Leon · Off: A. Flores
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Caracas FC · On: S. Gonzalez · Off: J. De Santis
FTFULL TIME Caracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC
FTCaracas FC 4–1 Zamora FC · Caracas FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Caracas FC win48%

Draw30%

Zamora FC win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:30

Line-ups

Caracas FC

Zamora FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Caracas FC

Zamora FC

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Caracas FC	24	−7	26
11	Zamora FC	24	−11	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Caracas FC

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Benitez

2 E. E. Fereira Penaranda

4 J. Quintero

14 F. La Mantia

13 J. Yendis

33 W. Correa

8 I. Gudino

39 A. Villarreal

7 Robert Hernandez

22 A. Figueroa

9 J. De Santis

Coach · Noel Sanvicente

Substitutes

12 · J. Vegas

30 · A. Herrera

3 · L. Pagano

41 · A. Lopez

15 · C. Larotonda

5 · M. Vegas

20 · L. A. Maestre Nino

10 · M. Covea

37 · C. Vegas

11 · M. Marquez

32 · J. Uribe

27 · S. Gonzalez

Zamora FC

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Paredes

40 I. Valladares

4 B. Rodriguez

13 A. Matos

28 J. Exime

16 C. M. Diaz Moreno

8 A. Flores

7 E. Gallardo

30 S. Torrealba

70 F. Espinal

38 J. Sinisterra

Coach · Josue Ortiz

Substitutes

12 · I. J. Sulbaran Briceno

2 · S. Gomez

25 · J. Mosquera

22 · E. Guerrero

6 · J. Moreno

17 · M. Guevara

5 · A. Leon

18 · A. Rivas

11 · H. Manrique

77 · N. Jimenez

9 · J. Flores

Our number · caracas fc winPublished 11 Oct 22:31

48% The market59%

Us48%

~~Market~~59%

We make Caracas FC a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · caracas fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caracas FC win	48%	59%	−11
Draw	30%	23%	+7
Zamora FC win	22%	17%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	57%	−17
Both teams to score	46%	55%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	68%	78%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	20%	37%	−17
Caracas FC or draw	78%	83%	−5
Caracas FC clean sheet	42%	–	–
Zamora FC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.7 7.3 3.9 1 12.6 13.9 5.5 2 10.0 8.8 3.9 3 4.8 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Caracas FC down, Zamora FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,465 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.27 goals a meeting; 8 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Caracas FC at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Zamora FC away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Caracas FC, 0.88 for Zamora FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.27

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~ZAM 1–1 CAR · CAR 2–0 ZAM · ZAM 3–0 CAR · CAR 3–1 ZAM

Form · last six in Primera División

CARACAS FC

DDWLLD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1

ZAMORA FC

DLDLLL0–0 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	31	+24	64
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	30	+18	58
3	Carabobo FC	31	+19	51
4	Deportivo La Guaira	31	+14	51
5	Portuguesa FC	31	+9	46
6	Puerto Cabello	31	+8	46
7	UCV	31	+2	44
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	30	−3	39
9	Caracas FC	24	−7	26
10	Monagas SC	24	−9	25
11	Zamora FC	24	−11	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	25	−20	25
13	Trujillanos FC	24	−23	15
14	Anzoátegui FC	23	−21	14