Caracas FC v Deportivo Tachira FC prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Caracas FCDrawDeportivo Tachira FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Tachira FC 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Tachira FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Caracas FC 28%, draw 31%, Deportivo Tachira FC 41%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Caracas FC v Deportivo Tachira FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Caracas FC win28%

Draw31%

Deportivo Tachira FC win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura - Quadrangular · matchday 1

VenueEstadio Olimpico de la UCV

Line-ups

Caracas FC

4-2-3-1

Deportivo Tachira FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Caracas FC

Deportivo Tachira FC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa Venezuela

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	+13	27
8	Caracas FC	13	−1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Caracas FC

4-2-3-1

1 F. Benítez

2 E. Fereira

4 J. Quintero

14 F. La Mantia

13 J. Yendis

39 A. Villarreal

8 I. Gudiño

33 W. Correa

10 M. Covea

7 R. Hernández

9 J. De Santis

Coach · N. Sanvicente

Substitutes

27 · S. Gonzalez

22 · Á. Figueroa

30 · A. Herrera

15 · C. Larotonda

20 · L. Maestre

11 · M. Márquez

3 · L. Pagano

17 · L. Reinoso

32 · J. Uribe

37 · C. Vegas

12 · Juan Daniel Vegas Polanco

5 · M. Vegas

Deportivo Tachira FC

4-2-3-1

1 A. Araque

88 D. Alfonzo

4 G. Fratta

13 P. Camacho

2 J. Sánchez

25 A. Pérez

24 J. Caraballo

10 C. Sosa

27 L. Zúñiga

11 A. Woiski

9 R. Pollero

Coach · Á. Recoba

Substitutes

41 · W. Wilches

30 · Edwin Vargas

44 · E. Tamiche

70 · H. Ramírez

45 · F. Provenzano

7 · A. Peñaranda

14 · B. Palmezano

3 · L. Lusnig

38 · G. Lozano

23 · Ó. Hernández

21 · V. Adamo

20 · C. Calzadilla

Our number · deportivo tachira fc winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Deportivo Tachira FC a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Caracas FC v Deportivo Tachira FC~~1.05 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 27~~8 v 2

~~The market · Deportivo Tachira FC win~~38% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Tachira FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caracas FC win	28%	34%	−6
Draw	31%	27%	+4
Deportivo Tachira FC win	41%	38%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	53%	−10
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	70%	76%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	22%	33%	−11
Caracas FC or draw	59%	62%	−3
Caracas FC clean sheet	27%	–	–
Deportivo Tachira FC clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 11.0 10.7 8.1 3.6 1 8.2 14.3 8.4 3.8 2 5.1 6.7 4.5 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Caracas FC down, Deportivo Tachira FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Caracas FC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Tachira FC away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Caracas FC, 1.33 for Deportivo Tachira FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 22:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 0–0 CAR · CAR 0–1 DEP · CAR 0–0 DEP · DEP 2–3 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept

CARACAS FC

WLLDWW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–1

DEPORTIVO TACHIRA FC

WLDWWD3–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	13	+19	32
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	+13	27
3	Puerto Cabello	13	+7	23
4	Carabobo FC	13	+5	22
5	Portuguesa FC	13	+2	19
6	Monagas SC	13	0	18
7	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17
8	Caracas FC	13	−1	17
9	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	−1	17
10	UCV	13	−2	16
11	Trujillanos FC	13	−6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	13	−11	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	−14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	−15	8