Carabobo FC v Deportivo La Guaira prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Carabobo FCDrawDeportivo La Guaira

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Carabobo FC 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Carabobo FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Carabobo FC 44%, draw 32%, Deportivo La Guaira 24%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Carabobo FC v Deportivo La GuairaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Carabobo FC win44%

Draw32%

Deportivo La Guaira win24%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura - Quadrangular · matchday 2

VenueEstadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Carabobo FC

Deportivo La Guaira

7Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa Venezuela

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa Venezuela

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Carabobo FC	13	+5	22
7	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · carabobo fc winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Carabobo FC a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Carabobo FC v Deportivo La Guaira~~1.26 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 17~~4 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Carabobo FC win	44%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Deportivo La Guaira win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Carabobo FC or draw	76%	–	–
Carabobo FC clean sheet	43%	–	–
Deportivo La Guaira clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 13.8 8.8 4.5 1 13.6 14.4 5.5 2 9.5 8.1 3.5 3 4.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Carabobo FC down, Deportivo La Guaira across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,477 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.4% of games this season, across 207 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Carabobo FC at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo La Guaira away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Carabobo FC, 0.86 for Deportivo La Guaira. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAR 1–0 DEP · DEP 1–1 CAR · CAR 0–0 DEP · DEP 0–0 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 6 Sept

CARABOBO FC

WWWDWD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA

WLLLDL2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	13	+19	32
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	13	+13	27
3	Puerto Cabello	13	+7	23
4	Carabobo FC	13	+5	22
5	Portuguesa FC	13	+2	19
6	Monagas SC	13	0	18
7	Deportivo La Guaira	13	+4	17
8	Caracas FC	13	−1	17
9	Estudiantes de Merida FC	13	−1	17
10	UCV	13	−2	16
11	Trujillanos FC	13	−6	14
12	Rayo Zuliano	13	−11	11
13	Anzoátegui FC	13	−14	8
14	Zamora FC	13	−15	8