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Anzoátegui FC v Carabobo FC

Anzoátegui FC

0–1Full time

Carabobo FC

Primera División · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Anzoátegui FC 0–1 Carabobo FC CARABOBO FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Carabobo FC win~~50%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.378

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.280

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 48 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Carabobo FC win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Carabobo FC 50% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 21–27–52
20′19′ and it is 0–1: M. Cova on the scoresheet for Carabobo FC. 0–1 · 5–15–79
28′19′ and it is 0–0: M. Cova on the scoresheet for Carabobo FC. 0–0 · 20–35–45 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
45′45′ and it is 0–1: E. Ramirez on the scoresheet for Carabobo FC. 0–1 · 3–15–81
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′SECOND HALF Anzoátegui FC 0–1 Carabobo FC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Anzoátegui FC · On: D. Tegues · Off: J. Caraballo
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Anzoátegui FC 0–2 Carabobo FC · E. Ramirez
50′45′ and it is 0–1: E. Ramirez on the scoresheet for Carabobo FC. 0–1 · 3–15–81
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' D. Guevara · Anzoátegui FC
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Carabobo FC · On: Y. Orozco · Off: D. Machis
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Anzoátegui FC · On: P. Rojas · Off: E. Ruiz
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Anzoátegui FC · On: J. Castellano · Off: G. Marin
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Carabobo FC · On: M. Nunez · Off: E. Castillo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Carabobo FC · On: B. Castillo · Off: L. Martinez
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Anzoátegui FC · On: A. Velasco · Off: C. Barrios
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Anzoátegui FC · On: A. Moreno · Off: J. Pacheco
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Carabobo FC · On: F. Lopez · Off: M. Cova
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Carabobo FC · On: D. Meza · Off: E. Ramirez
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Carabobo FC win: 50% at kick-off, 81% now
FTFULL TIME Anzoátegui FC 0–1 Carabobo FC
FTAnzoátegui FC 0–1 Carabobo FC · Carabobo FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Anzoátegui FC win20%

Draw30%

Carabobo FC win50%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

Line-ups

Anzoátegui FC

Carabobo FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Anzoátegui FC

Carabobo FC

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Carabobo FC	31	+19	51
14	Anzoátegui FC	23	−21	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Anzoátegui FC

Formation not confirmed

1 W. Hernandez

2 P. Bonilla

14 D. Bueno

22 D. Guevara

16 J. Silgado

7 G. Marin

8 E. Ruiz

5 J. Pacheco

77 C. Barrios

17 J. Caraballo

9 C. Ortiz

Coach · Giancarlo Maldonado

Substitutes

13 · J. Aguero

18 · J. Lovera

23 · G. E. Fuentes Alvarez

55 · A. Moreno

21 · A. Velasco

15 · G. Diciolla

11 · E. Navas

19 · D. Tegues

70 · P. Rojas

20 · J. Castellano

28 · F. Sinza

45 · P. Perez

Carabobo FC

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Silva

21 A. Gonzalez

32 E. Neira

4 L. Aponte

8 J. Perez

14 J. Berios

15 M. Cova

5 E. Castillo

11 D. Machis

19 L. Martinez

24 E. Ramirez

Coach · Daniel Farias

Substitutes

12 · K. Roa

2 · M. Guaramato

3 · J. Fuentes

17 · F. Oliveros

10 · Y. Orozco

6 · A. Bahachille

16 · F. Lopez

30 · S. Mendoza

23 · D. Meza

26 · M. Nunez

20 · E. Arzu

9 · B. Castillo

Our number · carabobo fc winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

50% The market57%

Us50%

~~Market~~57%

We make Carabobo FC a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · carabobo fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Anzoátegui FC win	20%	19%	+1
Draw	30%	25%	+5
Carabobo FC win	50%	57%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	40%	53%	−14
Both teams to score	44%	53%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	67%	76%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	20%	33%	−13
Anzoátegui FC or draw	50%	43%	+7
Anzoátegui FC clean sheet	24%	–	–
Carabobo FC clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.1 13.4 10.7 5.2 1 7.0 13.7 8.7 4.2 2 3.5 5.0 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Anzoátegui FC down, Carabobo FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,465 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Anzoátegui FC at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Carabobo FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Anzoátegui FC, 1.45 for Carabobo FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CAR 6–3 ANZ · ANZ 0–0 CAR · CAR 1–0 ANZ

Form · last six in Primera División

ANZOÁTEGUI FC

LLLLLD0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

CARABOBO FC

DLWWWD0–0 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Metropolitanos FC	31	+24	64
2	Deportivo Tachira FC	30	+18	58
3	Carabobo FC	31	+19	51
4	Deportivo La Guaira	31	+14	51
5	Portuguesa FC	31	+9	46
6	Puerto Cabello	31	+8	46
7	UCV	31	+2	44
8	Estudiantes de Merida FC	30	−3	39
9	Caracas FC	24	−7	26
10	Monagas SC	24	−9	25
11	Zamora FC	24	−11	25
12	Rayo Zuliano	25	−20	25
13	Trujillanos FC	24	−23	15
14	Anzoátegui FC	23	−21	14