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Model 1.1

Home › Football › Copa Venezuela › Trujillanos FC v Rayo Zuliano

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Trujillanos FC v Rayo Zuliano

Trujillanos FC
0–0Full time
Rayo Zuliano

Copa Venezuela · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 23:35
Trujillanos FC 0–0 Rayo Zuliano RAYO ZULIANO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rayo Zuliano win39%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.793
The market’s Brier score0.833

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rayo Zuliano win at 39%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Trujillanos FC v Rayo Zuliano
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Rayo Zuliano 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
  4. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Rayo Zuliano win 33%)
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Trujillanos FC 0–0 Rayo Zuliano
  6. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Trujillanos FC
  7. 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–45–29
  8. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Rayo Zuliano win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  9. 61′We said Rayo Zuliano at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 24–49–27
  10. 67′We said Rayo Zuliano at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
  11. 74′We said Rayo Zuliano at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
  12. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Rayo Zuliano win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  13. 80′We said Rayo Zuliano at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 12–75–13
  14. 84′We said Rayo Zuliano at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
  15. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Rayo Zuliano win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  16. 91′We said Rayo Zuliano at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–4
  17. 92′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Trujillanos FC
  18. FTFULL TIME Trujillanos FC 0–0 Rayo Zuliano
  19. FTTrujillanos FC 0–0 Rayo Zuliano · Rayo Zuliano win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rayo Zuliano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trujillanos FC 34%, draw 27%, Rayo Zuliano 39%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Trujillanos FC v Rayo ZulianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 20:33 · locked at kick-off

Trujillanos FC win34%
Draw27%
Rayo Zuliano win39%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 21:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Trujillanos FC

Rayo Zuliano

7Days since last match7
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rayo Zuliano5611
3Trujillanos FC5-14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rayo zuliano winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 20:33 · locked at kick-off
39% The market39%
Us39%
Market39%

We make Rayo Zuliano a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Trujillanos FC v Rayo Zuliano1.37 – 1.49
Last six in Copa VenezuelaW1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 4 v 113 v 1
The market · Rayo Zuliano win39% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 19:38
Our probability · rayo zuliano win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Trujillanos FC win34%36%−2
Draw27%26%+2
Rayo Zuliano win39%39%0
Over 2.5 goals54%55%−1
Both teams to score58%58%0
Over 1.5 goals79%77%+2
Over 3.5 goals32%34%−2
Trujillanos FC or draw61%61%0
Trujillanos FC clean sheet23%––
Rayo Zuliano clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 7.4 7.2 6.4 3.3 1 6.5 12.8 8.4 4.2 2 5.5 7.8 5.7 2.8 3 2.5 3.6 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Trujillanos FC down, Rayo Zuliano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsTRU 2–4 RAY · RAY 3–1 TRU

Form · last six in Copa Venezuela

TRUJILLANOS FC

LLWLDL1–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–1

RAYO ZULIANO

WLDWDL4–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–4

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rayo Zuliano5611
2Urena SC5-26
3Trujillanos FC5-14
4Deportivo Lara5-34

The competition's standings.