Puerto Cabello v Rayo Zuliano prediction · Copa Venezuela

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 02:30

Puerto Cabello 3–1 Rayo Zuliano PUERTO CABELLO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Puerto Cabello win~~60%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.243

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.166

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Puerto Cabello win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Puerto Cabello was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–25–15
1′KICK-OFF Puerto Cabello v Rayo Zuliano
21′Puerto Cabello find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–5
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Puerto Cabello 1–0 Rayo Zuliano
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Puerto Cabello win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
22′We published Puerto Cabello at 60%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–4
31′A goal for Puerto Cabello on 30′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
31′We published Puerto Cabello at 60%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Puerto Cabello 2–0 Rayo Zuliano
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Puerto Cabello win: 60% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Puerto Cabello 2–0 Rayo Zuliano
46′SECOND HALF Puerto Cabello 2–0 Rayo Zuliano
50′Puerto Cabello score on 50′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Puerto Cabello 3–0 Rayo Zuliano
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Puerto Cabello win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
51′We published Puerto Cabello at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
52′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′Rayo Zuliano find the net on 64′. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–1–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Puerto Cabello 3–1 Rayo Zuliano
65′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–1–0
68′A goal for Puerto Cabello on 68′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Puerto Cabello 4–1 Rayo Zuliano
69′GOAL DISALLOWED · 69' Puerto Cabello
FTFULL TIME Puerto Cabello 3–1 Rayo Zuliano
FTPuerto Cabello 3–1 Rayo Zuliano · Puerto Cabello win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Puerto Cabello are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Puerto Cabello 60%, draw 25%, Rayo Zuliano 15%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Puerto Cabello v Rayo ZulianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 09:24 · locked at kick-off

Puerto Cabello win60%

Draw25%

Rayo Zuliano win15%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 00:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueComplejo Deportivo Socialista

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puerto Cabello

Rayo Zuliano

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · puerto cabello winFirst published 16 Oct 09:24 · locked at kick-off

60% The market67%

Us60%

~~Market~~67%

We make Puerto Cabello a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puerto Cabello v Rayo Zuliano~~1.88 – 0.85

~~The market · Puerto Cabello win~~67% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Puerto Cabello win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puerto Cabello win	60%	67%	−7
Draw	25%	20%	+5
Rayo Zuliano win	15%	13%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
Puerto Cabello or draw	85%	87%	−2
Puerto Cabello clean sheet	43%	–	–
Rayo Zuliano clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 8.0 4.3 2.4 1 11.0 11.6 4.4 2 11.4 9.6 4.1 3 7.1 6.0 2.6 4 3.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puerto Cabello down, Rayo Zuliano across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puerto Cabello at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rayo Zuliano away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Puerto Cabello, 0.85 for Rayo Zuliano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PUE 2–0 RAY · RAY 2–1 PUE · RAY 0–0 PUE · PUE 1–0 RAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Venezuela this season · since 24 June

PUERTO CABELLO

No matches in our record yet.

RAYO ZULIANO

DWWDWD0–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Round 1 - Group D

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rayo Zuliano	6	+6	12
2	Deportivo Lara	6	0	7
3	Urena SC	6	−5	6
4	Trujillanos FC	6	−1	5

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Puerto Cabello v Rayo Zuliano

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Puerto Cabello

Rayo Zuliano

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Copa Venezuela this season · since 24 June

The table