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Model 1.2

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Portuguesa FC v Zamora FC

Portuguesa FC
0–2Full time
Zamora FC

Copa Venezuela · THU 22 OCT · Estadio General Jose Antonio Paez

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 02:30
Portuguesa FC 0–2 Zamora FC PORTUGUESA FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Portuguesa FC win50%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.975
The market’s Brier score0.538

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Portuguesa FC win at 50%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Portuguesa FC v Zamora FC
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Portuguesa FC 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–30–20
  4. 17′A goal for Zamora FC on 16′. 0–0 · 47–32–20
  5. 17′We said Portuguesa FC at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–26–53
  6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Portuguesa FC 0–1 Zamora FC
  7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Portuguesa FC win: 50% at kick-off, 22% now
  8. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Zamora FC win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Portuguesa FC win 47%)
  9. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Portuguesa FC win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  10. 25′We said Portuguesa FC at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
  11. 28′Zamora FC find the net on 28′. 0–2. 0–2 · 6–13–82
  12. 28′We said Portuguesa FC at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–13–82
  13. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Portuguesa FC 0–2 Zamora FC
  14. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Portuguesa FC win: 50% at kick-off, 6% now
  15. 35′We said Portuguesa FC at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–12–84
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Portuguesa FC 0–2 Zamora FC
  17. 45′SECOND HALF Portuguesa FC 0–2 Zamora FC
  18. 62′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  19. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Portuguesa FC win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
  20. 90′0–2 at the end. Our 50% on Portuguesa FC misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  21. FTFULL TIME Portuguesa FC 0–2 Zamora FC
  22. FTPortuguesa FC 0–2 Zamora FC · Portuguesa FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Portuguesa FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portuguesa FC 50%, draw 29%, Zamora FC 20%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Portuguesa FC v Zamora FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 09:24 · locked at kick-off

Portuguesa FC win50%
Draw29%
Zamora FC win20%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 00:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueEstadio General Jose Antonio Paez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portuguesa FC

Zamora FC

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Round 1 - Group B

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zamora FC6+1213

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · portuguesa fc winFirst published 16 Oct 09:24 · locked at kick-off
50% The market30%
Us50%
Market30%

We make Portuguesa FC a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 20 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Portuguesa FC v Zamora FC1.49 – 0.86
The market · Portuguesa FC win30% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%30%40%50%60% 16 OCT 09:2421 OCT 23:45
Our probability · Portuguesa FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Portuguesa FC win50%30%+20
Draw29%30%−1
Zamora FC win20%40%−20
Over 2.5 goals42%42%0
Both teams to score46%48%−2
Over 1.5 goals69%66%+3
Over 3.5 goals21%23%−2
Portuguesa FC or draw80%60%+20
Portuguesa FC clean sheet43%––
Zamora FC clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%
0123450 11.3 6.8 3.6 1 12.7 13.5 5.2 2 10.5 8.9 3.8 3 5.3 4.5 4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Portuguesa FC down, Zamora FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsPOR 1–1 ZAM · ZAM 0–2 POR · ZAM 1–0 POR · POR 2–1 ZAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Venezuela this season · since 24 June

PORTUGUESA FC

No matches in our record yet.

ZAMORA FC

WLWWDW6–1 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026 · Round 1 - Group B
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zamora FC6+1213
2Club Atletico Barinas6+713
3Atletico el Vigia FC6−57
4Real Frontera6−141

The competition's standings before kick-off.