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Estudiantes de Merida FC v Caracas FC

Estudiantes de Merida FC
1–1After penalties
Caracas FC

Copa Venezuela · WED 21 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 22 Oct 00:30
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1–1 Caracas FC ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Estudiantes de Merida FC win38%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.730
The market’s Brier score0.847

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. Caracas FC won 2–4 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Estudiantes de Merida FC win at 38%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Estudiantes de Merida FC v Caracas FC
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Estudiantes de Merida FC was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–31–31
  4. 18′We published Estudiantes de Merida FC at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
  5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Estudiantes de Merida FC 1–0 Caracas FC
  6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Estudiantes de Merida FC win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
  7. 19′Estudiantes de Merida FC score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
  8. 21′18′: R. Chacon on the scoresheet for Estudiantes de Merida FC, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Estudiantes de Merida FC 1–0 Caracas FC
  11. 48′HALF-TIME Estudiantes de Merida FC 1–0 Caracas FC
  12. 51′We published Estudiantes de Merida FC at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
  13. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Estudiantes de Merida FC win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
  14. 65′We published Estudiantes de Merida FC at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  15. 74′We published Estudiantes de Merida FC at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
  16. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Estudiantes de Merida FC win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
  17. 80′We published Estudiantes de Merida FC at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  18. 86′We said Estudiantes de Merida FC at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–88–6
  19. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Estudiantes de Merida FC 1–1 Caracas FC
  20. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Estudiantes de Merida FC win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
  21. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Estudiantes de Merida FC win 94%)
  22. 87′Caracas FC find the net on 87′. 1–1. 1–1 · 6–89–5
  23. 90′Caracas FC level it on 86′ through C. Larotonda. 1–1. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  24. 90′We said Estudiantes de Merida FC at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  25. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 52%. 1–1 · 26–52–22
  26. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  27. 120′Caracas FC level it on 86′ through C. Larotonda. 1–1. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  28. FTFULL TIME Estudiantes de Merida FC 1–1 Caracas FC
  29. FTEstudiantes de Merida FC 1–1 Caracas FC after 90 minutes, as graded · Estudiantes de Merida FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Estudiantes de Merida FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estudiantes de Merida FC 38%, draw 30%, Caracas FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Estudiantes de Merida FC v Caracas FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 09:24 · locked at kick-off

Estudiantes de Merida FC win38%
Draw30%
Caracas FC win31%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 22:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estudiantes de Merida FC

Caracas FC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Round 1 - Group C

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Caracas FC6+713

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estudiantes de merida fc winFirst published 16 Oct 09:24 · updated 19 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
38% The market51%
Us38%
Market51%

We make Estudiantes de Merida FC a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Estudiantes de Merida FC v Caracas FC1.30 – 1.14
The market · Estudiantes de Merida FC win51% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 16 OCT 09:2421 OCT 21:45
Our probability · Estudiantes de Merida FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Estudiantes de Merida FC win38%51%−13
Draw30%27%+3
Caracas FC win31%23%+8
Over 2.5 goals44%47%−3
Both teams to score51%49%+2
Over 1.5 goals71%71%0
Over 3.5 goals23%26%−3
Estudiantes de Merida FC or draw69%77%−8
Estudiantes de Merida FC clean sheet32%––
Caracas FC clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%
0123450 10.5 8.4 5.7 2.2 1 9.7 14.3 7.3 2.8 2 7.3 8.2 4.7 3 3.2 3.6 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Estudiantes de Merida FC down, Caracas FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.70
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsCAR 2–2 EST · EST 2–2 CAR · EST 1–0 CAR · CAR 0–0 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Venezuela this season · since 24 June

ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC

No matches in our record yet.

CARACAS FC

DWWWWL1–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026 · Round 1 - Group C
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Caracas FC6+713
2Aragua FC6+610
3Yaracuyanos FC607
4Fundación Lara Deportiva6−134

The competition's standings before kick-off.