Deportivo Lara v Urena SC prediction · Copa Venezuela

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 02:30

Deportivo Lara 4–1 Urena SC DEPORTIVO LARA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Lara win~~64%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.198

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.288

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Lara win at 64%.
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Lara v Urena SC
2′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Lara was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–21–14
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Deportivo Lara 1–0 Urena SC
20′Deportivo Lara find the net on 18′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–11–3
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Deportivo Lara win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
24′We published Deportivo Lara at 64%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–11–3
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
38′A goal for Urena SC on 37′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 53–33–14
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Deportivo Lara 1–1 Urena SC
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Deportivo Lara win: 64% at kick-off, 53% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Deportivo Lara 2–1 Urena SC
40′38′ and it is 2–1: Deportivo Lara have scored. 2–1 · 86–12–3
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Deportivo Lara win: 64% at kick-off, 86% now
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 86–12–2
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Lara 2–1 Urena SC
46′Deportivo Lara find the net on 46′. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Lara 2–1 Urena SC
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Deportivo Lara 3–1 Urena SC
47′We published Deportivo Lara at 64%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Deportivo Lara win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
49′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Deportivo Lara 3–2 Urena SC
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Urena SC
77′We published Deportivo Lara at 64%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Deportivo Lara 4–1 Urena SC
85′A goal for Deportivo Lara on 84′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
86′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′R. Guerrero scores for Deportivo Lara on 83′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Lara 4–1 Urena SC
FTDeportivo Lara 4–1 Urena SC · Deportivo Lara win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Lara are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Lara 64%, draw 23%, Urena SC 13%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Lara v Urena SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Lara win64%

Draw23%

Urena SC win13%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Lara

Urena SC

3Days since last match3

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Urena SC	5	-2	6
4	Deportivo Lara	5	-3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo lara winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

64% The market56%

Us64%

~~Market~~56%

We make Deportivo Lara a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Lara v Urena SC~~1.95 – 0.75

~~Last six in Copa Venezuela~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~4 v 2

~~The market · Deportivo Lara win~~56% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo lara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Lara win	64%	56%	+8
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Urena SC win	13%	19%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	46%	53%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−5
Deportivo Lara or draw	87%	81%	+6
Deportivo Lara clean sheet	48%	–	–
Urena SC clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.6%

0123450 8.1 4.2 1 12.2 10.7 3.7 2 12.6 9.3 3.5 3 8.1 6.0 2.3 4 4.1 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Lara down, Urena SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,327 Segunda División matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Lara at home: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Urena SC away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Deportivo Lara, 0.75 for Urena SC. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~URE 0–1 DEP · DEP 2–3 URE · URE 0–0 DEP

Form · last six in Copa Venezuela

DEPORTIVO LARA

WWWWLW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

URENA SC

WWLLDD1–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rayo Zuliano	5	6	11
2	Urena SC	5	-2	6
3	Trujillanos FC	5	-1	4
4	Deportivo Lara	5	-3	4

The competition's standings.

Deportivo Lara v Urena SC

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Deportivo Lara

Urena SC

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Copa Venezuela

The table