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Deportivo La Guaira v Aragua FC
Deportivo La GuairaAragua FCCopa Venezuela · WED 21 OCT · Estadio Olimpico de la UCV
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo La Guaira win at 67%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Deportivo La Guaira v Aragua FC
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo La Guaira 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–23–10
- 17′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
- 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Deportivo La Guaira 1–0 Aragua FC
- 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Deportivo La Guaira win: 67% at kick-off, 89% now
- 19′Deportivo La Guaira find the net on 18′. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–2
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 89–9–2
- 45′SECOND HALF Deportivo La Guaira 1–0 Aragua FC
- 47′HALF-TIME Deportivo La Guaira 1–0 Aragua FC
- 53′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 62′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Deportivo La Guaira 2–0 Aragua FC
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Deportivo La Guaira win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
- 63′A goal for Deportivo La Guaira on 62′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 64′We said Deportivo La Guaira at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Deportivo La Guaira 3–0 Aragua FC
- 65′Deportivo La Guaira score on 64′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 66′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 93′3–0 at the end. Our 67% on Deportivo La Guaira comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Deportivo La Guaira 3–0 Aragua FC
- FTDeportivo La Guaira 3–0 Aragua FC · Deportivo La Guaira win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Deportivo La Guaira are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo La Guaira 67%, draw 22%, Aragua FC 10%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 36%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 16 Oct 09:24 · locked at kick-off
Deportivo La Guaira win67%Aragua FC win10%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 23:00
RoundRound of 16
VenueEstadio Olimpico de la UCV
Match timeline
All events
Deportivo La GuairaMINAragua FCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Deportivo La Guaira
Aragua FC
Last match: 17 Oct · Primera División (Venezuela)
Last match: 18 Oct · Segunda División (Venezuela)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026 · Round 1 - Group CPositions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aragua FC | 6 | +6 | 10 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Deportivo La Guaira a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 68%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Guaira win | 67% | 54% | +13 |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | −3 |
| Aragua FC win | 10% | 21% | −11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 51% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 36% | 51% | −15 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 74% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 31% | −10 |
| Deportivo La Guaira or draw | 90% | 79% | +11 |
| Deportivo La Guaira clean sheet | 58% | – | – |
| Aragua FC clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Copa Venezuela this season · since 24 June
DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA
No matches in our record yet.
ARAGUA FC
The table
2026 · Round 1 - Group C| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Caracas FC | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 3 |  Yaracuyanos FC | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 |  Fundación Lara Deportiva | 6 | −13 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.