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Club Atletico Barinas v Real Frontera

Club Atletico Barinas
3–0Full time
Real Frontera

Copa Venezuela · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 23:00
Club Atletico Barinas 3–0 Real Frontera CLUB ATLETICO BARINAS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Club Atletico Barinas win64%
The market said73%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.192
The market’s Brier score0.111

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Club Atletico Barinas win at 64%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Club Atletico Barinas was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–18–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Club Atletico Barinas v Real Frontera
  4. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Club Atletico Barinas win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Club Atletico Barinas 0–0 Real Frontera
  6. 46′We said Club Atletico Barinas at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 52–30–18
  7. 52′We said Club Atletico Barinas at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–33–18
  8. 55′We expected about 3.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 47–35–18
  9. 60′We said Club Atletico Barinas at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–39–17
  10. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Club Atletico Barinas win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
  11. 66′We said Club Atletico Barinas at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
  12. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Club Atletico Barinas win 39%)
  13. 68′We published Club Atletico Barinas at 64%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  14. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Club Atletico Barinas 1–0 Real Frontera
  15. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Club Atletico Barinas win: 64% at kick-off, 85% now
  16. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Club Atletico Barinas win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
  17. 69′67′ and it is 1–0: Club Atletico Barinas have scored. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  18. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Real Frontera
  19. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Club Atletico Barinas
  20. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Club Atletico Barinas 2–0 Real Frontera · A. Sanchez
  21. 78′GOAL DISALLOWED · 78' Club Atletico Barinas
  22. 78′⚽ GOAL · 79' Club Atletico Barinas 2–0 Real Frontera
  23. 79′Club Atletico Barinas find the net on 79′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  24. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Club Atletico Barinas win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
  25. 80′We published Club Atletico Barinas at 64%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  26. 82′We published Club Atletico Barinas at 64%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 86′A goal for Club Atletico Barinas on 86′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  28. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Club Atletico Barinas 3–0 Real Frontera
  29. 90′Full time, 3–0. We called Club Atletico Barinas at 64% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 91′W. Mujica scores for Club Atletico Barinas on 85′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  31. FTFULL TIME Club Atletico Barinas 3–0 Real Frontera
  32. FTClub Atletico Barinas 3–0 Real Frontera · Club Atletico Barinas win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Atletico Barinas are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Atletico Barinas 64%, draw 19%, Real Frontera 17%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Club Atletico Barinas v Real FronteraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 19:45 · locked at kick-off

Club Atletico Barinas win64%
Draw19%
Real Frontera win17%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 20:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Club Atletico Barinas

Real Frontera

7Days since last match8
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Club Atletico Barinas5410
4Real Frontera5-111

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club atletico barinas winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 19:45 · locked at kick-off
64% The market73%
Us64%
Market73%

We make Club Atletico Barinas a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Club Atletico Barinas v Real Frontera2.57 – 1.26
Last six in Copa VenezuelaW1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 10 v 12 v 4
The market · Club Atletico Barinas win73% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 18:16
Our probability · club atletico barinas win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Club Atletico Barinas win64%73%−9
Draw19%16%+3
Real Frontera win17%11%+6
Over 2.5 goals73%70%+2
Both teams to score66%55%+11
Over 1.5 goals89%87%+2
Over 3.5 goals53%52%+1
Club Atletico Barinas or draw83%89%−6
Club Atletico Barinas clean sheet29%––
Real Frontera clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%
0123450 3.2 2.2 1 5.1 7.9 4.5 2 7.1 8.7 5.5 2.3 3 6.0 7.3 4.6 4 3.9 4.7 3.0 5 2.1 2.5
under 2% 5% 12%+Club Atletico Barinas down, Real Frontera across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2026
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsREA 1–1 CLU · CLU 3–1 REA · REA 4–3 CLU · CLU 2–1 REA

Form · last six in Copa Venezuela

CLUB ATLETICO BARINAS

LDWLLD0–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

REAL FRONTERA

LDLLLW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 3–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zamora FC51010
2Club Atletico Barinas5410
3Atletico el Vigia FC5-37
4Real Frontera5-111

The competition's standings.