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Bolívar v Mineros de Guyana

Bolívar
1–0Full time
Mineros de Guyana

Copa Venezuela · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 23:00
Bolívar 1–0 Mineros de Guyana BOLÍVAR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bolívar win47%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.417
The market’s Brier score0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bolívar win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Bolívar was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Bolívar v Mineros de Guyana
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Bolívar 0–0 Mineros de Guyana
  5. 46′A goal for Bolívar on 46′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Bolívar 0–0 Mineros de Guyana
  7. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bolívar 1–0 Mineros de Guyana
  8. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Bolívar win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
  9. 47′We published Bolívar at 47%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
  10. 48′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–4
  11. 54′We published Bolívar at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  12. 69′We published Bolívar at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  13. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Bolívar win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  14. 78′We published Bolívar at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  15. 85′We published Bolívar at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  16. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Bolívar win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  17. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Mineros de Guyana
  18. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Bolívar
  19. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Mineros de Guyana
  20. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Bolívar
  21. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Bolívar
  22. FTFULL TIME Bolívar 1–0 Mineros de Guyana
  23. FTBolívar 1–0 Mineros de Guyana · Bolívar win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bolívar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bolívar 47%, draw 28%, Mineros de Guyana 24%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Bolívar v Mineros de GuyanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 19:18 · locked at kick-off

Bolívar win47%
Draw28%
Mineros de Guyana win24%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 20:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bolívar

Mineros de Guyana

7Days since last match7
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Mineros de Guyana51110
3Bolívar5-54

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bolívar winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 19:18 · locked at kick-off
47% The market32%
Us47%
Market32%

We make Bolívar a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bolívar v Mineros de Guyana1.50 – 1.01
Last six in Copa VenezuelaW3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 4 v 103 v 2
The market · Bolívar win32% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 19:38
Our probability · bolívar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bolívar win47%32%+15
Draw28%27%+1
Mineros de Guyana win24%40%−16
Over 2.5 goals46%54%−8
Both teams to score50%58%−8
Over 1.5 goals72%76%−4
Over 3.5 goals25%33%−8
Bolívar or draw76%60%+16
Bolívar clean sheet37%––
Mineros de Guyana clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 9.8 7.1 4.2 1 11.1 13.2 6.0 2.1 2 9.1 8.9 4.5 3 4.6 4.5 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bolívar down, Mineros de Guyana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting2.38
Over 2.53 of 8
Both scored4 of 8
Last meetingsMIN 4–1 BOL · BOL 1–2 MIN · MIN 2–3 BOL · BOL 1–0 MIN

Form · last six in Copa Venezuela

BOLÍVAR

WWLDLW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

MINEROS DE GUYANA

WWDLWL2–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Monagas SC51012
2Mineros de Guyana51110
3Bolívar5-54
4Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz5-163

The competition's standings.