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Atletico el Vigia FC v Zamora FC

Atletico el Vigia FC
1–3Full time
Zamora FC

Copa Venezuela · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 23:00
Atletico el Vigia FC 1–3 Zamora FC ZAMORA FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Zamora FC win60%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.243
The market’s Brier score0.584

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zamora FC win at 60%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Zamora FC 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 18–22–60
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Atletico el Vigia FC v Zamora FC
  4. 19′20′ and it is 0–0: Atletico el Vigia FC have scored. 0–0 · 18–26–56
  5. 20′We said Zamora FC at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 45–27–29
  6. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Atletico el Vigia FC 1–0 Zamora FC
  7. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Zamora FC win: 60% at kick-off, 29% now
  8. 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Atletico el Vigia FC win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Zamora FC win 29%)
  9. 30′We said Zamora FC at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 48–28–24
  10. 32′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 48–28–24
  11. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Zamora FC win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
  12. 42′We said Zamora FC at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 52–29–19
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Atletico el Vigia FC 1–0 Zamora FC
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Atletico el Vigia FC 1–0 Zamora FC
  15. 46′19′ and it is 1–0: Y. Parra on the scoresheet for Atletico el Vigia FC. 1–0 · 54–29–17
  16. 52′We said Zamora FC at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 57–28–14
  17. 57′Zamora FC find the net on 58′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–28–12
  18. 58′We said Zamora FC at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 16–45–39
  19. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Atletico el Vigia FC 1–1 Zamora FC
  20. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Zamora FC win: 60% at kick-off, 39% now
  21. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Atletico el Vigia FC win 16%)
  22. 62′A goal for Zamora FC on 61′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  23. 62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Atletico el Vigia FC 1–2 Zamora FC
  24. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Zamora FC win: 60% at kick-off, 85% now
  25. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Zamora FC win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
  26. 63′We said Zamora FC at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  27. 64′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  28. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Zamora FC
  29. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Zamora FC
  30. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Atletico el Vigia FC
  31. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Zamora FC
  32. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Zamora FC
  33. 77′We said Zamora FC at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  34. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Zamora FC win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
  35. 82′81′ and it is 1–3: Zamora FC have scored. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  36. 82′We said Zamora FC at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  37. 82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Atletico el Vigia FC 1–3 Zamora FC
  38. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Zamora FC win: 60% at kick-off, 100% now
  39. 83′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  40. FTFULL TIME Atletico el Vigia FC 1–3 Zamora FC
  41. FTAtletico el Vigia FC 1–3 Zamora FC · Zamora FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zamora FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico el Vigia FC 18%, draw 23%, Zamora FC 60%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Atletico el Vigia FC v Zamora FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 19:45 · locked at kick-off

Atletico el Vigia FC win18%
Draw23%
Zamora FC win60%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 20:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico el Vigia FC

Zamora FC

8Days since last match7
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zamora FC51010
3Atletico el Vigia FC5-37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zamora fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 19:45 · locked at kick-off
60% The market38%
Us60%
Market38%

We make Zamora FC a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 22 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Atletico el Vigia FC v Zamora FC0.93 – 1.91
Last six in Copa VenezuelaW2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 7 v 103 v 1
The market · Zamora FC win38% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60%70% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 18:16
Our probability · zamora fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atletico el Vigia FC win18%35%−18
Draw23%27%−4
Zamora FC win60%38%+22
Over 2.5 goals54%59%−5
Both teams to score52%62%−10
Over 1.5 goals78%79%−1
Over 3.5 goals32%39%−7
Atletico el Vigia FC or draw40%62%−22
Atletico el Vigia FC clean sheet15%––
Zamora FC clean sheet39%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.9%
0123450 6.2 10.9 10.7 6.8 3.2 1 5.1 10.7 9.9 6.3 3.0 2 2.5 4.8 4.6 2.9 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico el Vigia FC down, Zamora FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting7.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsZAM 6–1 ATL

Form · last six in Copa Venezuela

ATLETICO EL VIGIA FC

LLWWLD1–3 · 1–6 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 2–5 · 1–1

ZAMORA FC

DWLWWD1–1 · 6–1 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Zamora FC51010
2Club Atletico Barinas5410
3Atletico el Vigia FC5-37
4Real Frontera5-111

The competition's standings.